Puneet Vatsa, Hem C. Basnet, Franklin G. Mixon, Kamal P. Upadhyaya
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There is a consensus that stock markets are procyclical. However, answers to some important questions remain unclear. Do stock markets lead or lag business cycles? More interestingly, what is the duration with which they lead or lag them? This study uses different time-series filters and time-difference analysis to answer these questions by examining the dynamic interactions between three major stock indices and key macroeconomic indicators in the United States. The findings show that stock markets have been strongly procyclical, lagging industrial production by one to three months in recent decades. There have been noteworthy changes in the relationship between inflation and stock market cycles. The correlations changed from negative in the 1980s and 1990s to positive in the 2000s and 2010s. The results also reveal close associations between the stock indices, offering new insights into the interplay between financial markets and economic cycles.
期刊介绍：
International Advances in Economic Research (IAER) was established to promote the dissemination of economic and financial research within the international community. Founded in 1995 by the International Atlantic Economic Society, a need was identified to provide the latest research on today''s economic policies and tomorrow''s economic and financial conditions. Economists can no longer be concerned with professional developments only in their home country. Research by scholars in one country can easily have implications for other countries, yet often vital results are not shared. Economic restructuring in a shrinking world demands close analysis and careful interpretation. In IAER, authors from around the globe look at these issues, coming together in the cross-fertilization of multinational ideas. The journal provides economists, financial specialists, and scholars in related disciplines with much-needed opportunities to share their insights with worldwide colleagues. Policy-oriented, empirical, and theoretical research papers in all economic and financial areas are welcome, without regard to methodological preferences or school of thought. All manuscripts are submitted to a double-blind, peer review process.
In addition to formal publication of full-length articles, IAER provides an opportunity for less formal communication through its Research Notes section. A small point may not be worthy of a full-length, formal paper but is important enough to warrant dissemination to other researchers. Research in progress may be of interest to other scholars in the field. A research approach ending in negative results needs to be shared to save others similar pitfalls. Research Notes has been established to facilitate this form of communication. The section provides a means by which short manuscripts of less than 200 words can quickly appear in IAER. The review process for these shorter manu scripts is usually completed within 30 days.
Officially cited as: Int Adv Econ Res
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