通过具有空间比例的出生-死亡过程建立流行病模型

IF 16.4 1区 化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Ihsan Arharas, Mohamed El Fatini, Mohammed Louriki, Roger Pettersson
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在流行病建模中,对相关方程中的 s、i 和 r 等分区量的解释并不总是很直接。这些量代表的是每个分区中个体的数量还是分数,这一点含糊不清,引发了对相关参数重要性的质疑。本文受 20 世纪 70 年代库尔茨(Kurtz)的启发,采用出生-死亡过程方法对依赖密度的流行病进行建模,从而解决了这些难题。与现有文献在恒定种群条件下采用种群规模缩放的方法不同,我们采用的是与区域相关的缩放方法。也就是说,在人口空间均质性假设下,我们考虑单位面积内的易感人群、感染人群和康复人群的数量。这种空间缩放方法可以对人口数量不同的出生-死亡型流行病模型进行扩散近似。通过采用这种方法,我们希望能对流行病模型中的分区数量和参数做出清晰透明的描述。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Epidemic modelling by birth-death processes with spatial scaling
In epidemic modeling, interpretation of compartment quantities, such as s, i, and r in relevant equations, is not always straightforward. Ambiguities regarding whether these quantities represent numbers or fractions of individuals in each compartment rise questions about significance of the involved parameters. In this paper, we address these challenges by considering a density-dependent epidemic modelling by a birth-death process approach inspired by Kurtz from 1970s’. In contrast to existing literature, which employs population size scaling under constant population condition, we scale with respect to the area. Namely, under the assumption of spatial homogeneity of the population, we consider the quantities of susceptible, infective and recovered per unit area. This spatial scaling allows diffusion approximation for birth-death type epidemic models with varying population size. By adopting this approach, we anticipate to contribute to a clear and transparent description of compartment quantities and parameters in epidemic modeling.
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来源期刊
Accounts of Chemical Research
Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合
CiteScore
31.40
自引率
1.10%
发文量
312
审稿时长
2 months
期刊介绍: Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.
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