恐怖活动自激过程模型中的内生和外生效应

IF 1.4 3区数学 Q2 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY

Statistica Neerlandica Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI:10.1111/stan.12347

Fabrizio Ruggeri, Michael D. Porter, Gentry White

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引用次数: 0

摘要

该模型基于自激过程模型的群集过程表示法，允许自激或群集过程模型中恐怖事件的激发效应发生变化。文中给出了该模型的推导和实施细节，并将其应用于 2000 年至 2013 年全球恐怖主义数据库（国家恐怖主义和恐怖主义对策研究联合会（START），2015 年）中的数据。讨论了与现有犯罪学理论并行的理论模型的实际解释和影响结果。

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Endogenous and exogenous effects in self‐exciting process models of terrorist activity

A model based on the cluster process representation of the self‐exciting process model is derived to allow for variation in the excitation effects for terrorist events in a self‐exciting or cluster process model. The model's derivation and implementation details are given and applied to data from the Global Terrorism Database (National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START), 2015) from 2000 to 2013. Results regarding the practical interpretation and implications for a theoretical model paralleling existing criminological theory are discussed.

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来源期刊

Statistica Neerlandica 数学-统计学与概率论

CiteScore

2.60

自引率

6.70%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Statistica Neerlandica has been the journal of the Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research since 1946. It covers all areas of statistics, from theoretical to applied, with a special emphasis on mathematical statistics, statistics for the behavioural sciences and biostatistics. This wide scope is reflected by the expertise of the journal’s editors representing these areas. The diverse editorial board is committed to a fast and fair reviewing process, and will judge submissions on quality, correctness, relevance and originality. Statistica Neerlandica encourages transparency and reproducibility, and offers online resources to make data, code, simulation results and other additional materials publicly available.