Invasion in cold: weather effects on winter activity of an alien mesopredator at its northern range

Whether an invasive species thrives in cold ecosystems depends on its response to winter weather. A potential threat to these ecosystems in Europe is the invasive raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides). The survival of this mesopredator is supported in cold weather, because it can periodically use winter sleep, but its winter activity levels compared to native mesopredators remain unclear. We investigated the winter behaviour of raccoon dogs in Finland, near the edge of their invasion front, and compared their activity to native red foxes and badgers. Using wildlife cameras, we found that raccoon dogs do reduce activity during the coldest months, but camera observations did not strongly correlate with temperature perhaps due to feeding at camera sites. That is, artificial food sources may have increased raccoon dogs’ winter activity. Nevertheless, they responded more clearly to temperature drops than red foxes, but were more active than badgers that were mostly dormant and thus absent from our data. GPS-tracked raccoon dogs remained at some level active through winter, even near subarctic regions, but the cold and snowy weather clearly decreased activity and individuals stayed close to their nests during the coldest periods. Overall, these findings suggest that raccoon dogs can maintain some winter activity even in extremely cold environments, and they readily exploit human-provided resources. This potential ability to thrive in cold regions highlights the invasive potential of raccoon dogs. As winters become milder due to climate change, their numbers could increase significantly within cold-adapted ecosystems, impacting native species and posing conservation challenges.