The Ukraine War and the Limits of Latin American Fence-Sitting

Why have most Latin American countries – traditionally pro-Atlantic and staunch defenders of non-intervention – remained conspicuously neutral during the Ukraine War? We argue that in an increasingly bipolar context, fence-sitting produces clear strategic gains through partner-diversification and bargaining power. However, this strategy becomes riskier with polarisation and, at a certain point, these risks may upset benefits. We formalise this argument and examine the foreign policy trajectories of several Latin American countries in the context of the Ukraine War to illustrate how their room for diplomatic flexibility has shrunk with polarisation. As a corollary, we think of scenarios where the costs of fence-sitting can outweigh its advantages, forcing the region to align.