Can next generation ecological risk assessment decisions be made today?―A case study of regulatory risk assessment in the United States

We examined the need for new in vivo avian toxicity testing for three common industrial chemicals (1,2 dichloropropane, 1,1,2-trichloroethane and triphenyl phosphate) based on estimated avian exposures using fugacity and multimedia fate models for current conditions of use compared to hazard information including existing in vivo test data for the chemicals and analogs, interspecies correlation estimates and results from hundreds of acute avian dietary toxicity studies. The data indicated that acute avian toxicity is not likely to be observed below 10 ppm in the diet for any chemical with the exception of those with a specific mode of toxic action. Modeling indicated low exposure potential for terrestrial birds to any of the three chemicals, with estimated dietary concentration of less than 0.001 ppm. Despite uncertainty associated with the underlying data sources, the four order of magnitude gap between potential exposure and a minimum hazard threshold suggests that additional avian in vivo testing would not generate valuable data. However, a weight of evidence approach for integrating data is necessary to engender greater confidence among government decision-makers in cases where data from a particular in vivo study is not expected to improve risk decision-making and an existing data gap can remain unfilled.