Establishment of diagnostic model and identification of diagnostic markers between liver cancer and cirrhosis based on multi-chip and machine learning

Objective

Most cases of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) arise as a consequence of cirrhosis. In this study, our objective is to construct a comprehensive diagnostic model that investigates the diagnostic markers distinguishing between cirrhosis and HCC.

Methods

Based on multiple GEO datasets containing cirrhosis and HCC samples, we used lasso regression, random forest (RF)-recursive feature elimination (RFE) and receiver operator characteristic analysis to screen for characteristic genes. Subsequently, we integrated these genes into a multivariable logistic regression model and validated the linear prediction scores in both training and validation cohorts. The ssGSEA algorithm was used to estimate the fraction of infiltrating immune cells in the samples. Finally, molecular typing for patients with cirrhosis was performed using the CCP algorithm.

Results

The study identified 137 differentially expressed genes (DEGs) and selected five significant genes (CXCL14, CAP2, FCN2, CCBE1 and UBE2C) to construct a diagnostic model. In both the training and validation cohorts, the model exhibited an area under the curve (AUC) greater than 0.9 and a kappa value of approximately 0.9. Additionally, the calibration curve demonstrated excellent concordance between observed and predicted incidence rates. Comparatively, HCC displayed overall downregulation of infiltrating immune cells compared to cirrhosis. Notably, CCBE1 showed strong correlations with the tumour immune microenvironment as well as genes associated with cell death and cellular ageing processes. Furthermore, cirrhosis subtypes with high linear predictive scores were enriched in multiple cancer-related pathways.

Conclusion

In conclusion, we successfully identified diagnostic markers distinguishing between cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma and developed a novel diagnostic model for discriminating the two conditions. CCBE1 might exert a pivotal role in regulating the tumour microenvironment, cell death and senescence.