Stock price overreaction: evidence from bull and bear markets

Purpose

In this paper, we provide new evidence to strengthen the stock market overreaction hypothesis by examining a new context that has not been explored before. Our research is inspired by the widely held belief that investor sentiment experiences abrupt changes from optimism to pessimism as the market switches between bull and bear states.

Design/methodology/approach

If the stock market overreaction hypothesis is correct, it implies that investors are inclined to become excessively optimistic during bull markets and overly pessimistic during bear markets, resulting in overreaction and subsequent market correction. Consequently, the study first develops two testable hypotheses that can be used to uncover the presence of stock market overreaction with subsequent correction. These hypotheses are then tested using long-term data from the US market.

Findings

The study's findings support the hypothesis while also revealing a significant asymmetry in investor overreaction between bull and bear markets. Specifically, our results indicate that investors tend to overreact towards the end of a bear market, and the subsequent bull market starts with a prompt and robust correction. Conversely, investors appear to overreact only towards the end of a prolonged bull market. The correction during a bear market is not confined to its initial phase but extends across its entire duration.

Research limitations/implications

Our study has some limitations related to its focus on investigating stock market overreaction in the US market and analyzing the pattern of mean returns during bull and bear market states. Expanding our study to different global markets would be necessary to understand whether the same stock market overreaction effect exists universally. Furthermore, exploring the relationship between volatility and overreaction during different market phases would be an exciting direction for future research, as it could provide a more complete picture of market dynamics.

Practical implications

Our study confirms the presence of the stock market overreaction effect, which contradicts the efficient market hypothesis. We have observed specific price patterns during bull and bear markets that investors can potentially exploit. However, successfully capitalizing on these patterns depends on accurately predicting the turning points between bull and bear market states.

Social implications

The results of our study have significant implications for market regulators. Stock market overreactions resulting in market corrections can severely disrupt the market, leading to significant financial losses for investors and undermining investor confidence in the overall market. Further, the existence of overreactions suggests that the stock market may not always be efficient, raising regulatory concerns. Policymakers and regulators may need to implement policies and regulations to mitigate the effects of overreactions and subsequent market corrections.

Originality/value

This paper aims to provide additional support for the stock market overreaction hypothesis using a new setting in which this hypothesis has not been previously investigated.