Analysis of a Novel Conformable Fractional Order ASIR Dengue Transmission Model in the Perspective of Bangladesh

Abstract

Dengue fever is an intense feverish virus related disease dispatched with the nibble of Aedes mosquitoes carrying one of the four serotypes, which are symbolized as DEN-1, DEN-2, DEN-3, DEN-4. Almost fifty two percent people of our planet is at risk due to the dengue fever. Particularly, people of the tropical and subtropical countries as like Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Malaysia, etc. are in very risky position due to this fever. In Bangladesh, dengue fever happens nationally and has been endemic for more than two decades. Therefore, for realizing the dynamical conduct of this fever a perfect scientific model of disease transmission plays a noteworthy role and help us to prevent this disease effectively. From this context, in this article a novel six compartmental ASIR dengue transmission model have been established by using conformable fractional order derivatives. In the proposed model, the dynamics of human and mosquito populations have been constructed with six compartments. Here, the analytical stability of equilibria has been shown by disease free and endemic equilibrium points. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis of the proposed model has been executed to evaluate the comparative rank of the model parameters for dengue transmission. The data of infected human population has been accumulated from different health institutions of Bangladesh which have been used to compute the infection rate of dengue cases in Bangladesh. Finally, a numerical simulation has been constructed for studying the dynamical behavior of dengue transmission with the help of Conformable fractional differential transformation technique.