Quo vadis Scots pine forestry in northern Germany: How do silvicultural management and climate change determine an uncertain future?

Scots pine is of greatest importance in northern Germany regarding its cultivation area and expected capability to perform in climate change. However, pine predominantly occurs in monocultures. Therefore, future pine forestry depends on an adaptation to climate change while improving ecological and economic forest functions. Yet future development of pine remains uncertain due to leeway in silvicultural guidelines and future climate. This study questions: (i) what is the range of future pine shares under climate change and different silvicultural management in northern Germany, (ii) how will the current stands develop and (iii) what is the range of uncertainty arising from climate models and silvicultural options? To answer these issues we (i) selected forest development types site- and climate-sensitively to either minimize or to maximize pine shares, (ii) simulated four, now practiced forest management scenarios for 50 years based on the German National Forest Inventory and (iii) analyzed the differences, to be interpreted as uncertainty. Novel to our approach is the site- and climate-sensitive selection of forest development types on large scales which emphasizes the contrasts of the different management guidelines. The results show that growing stock and cultivation area will decrease even if pine is promoted in forestry. The predicted restoration rate ranges from 50 to 72% depending on scenario and previous thinning regime. In conclusion, under the given management concepts and considering today’s high proportion of old pine, restoration is alarmingly slow. Amid the rapidly changing climate, we recommend to further adjust the management guidelines to accelerate forest restoration.