Risk-adjusted lifetime value: adjusting for customer riskiness using a single metric

Purpose

The current approach to valuing customers is based on the notion of discounted profit generated by the customers over the lifetime of the relationship, also known as customer lifetime value (CLV). However, in the financial services industry, the customers who contribute the most to the profitability of a firm are also the riskiest customers. If the riskiness of a customer is not considered, firms will overestimate the true value of that customer. This paper proposes a methodology to adjust CLV for different types of risk factors and creates a comprehensive measure of risk-adjusted lifetime value (RALTV).

Design/methodology/approach

Using data from a major credit card company, we develop a measure of risk adjusted lifetime value (RALTV) that accounts for diverse types of customer risks. The model is estimated using Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA).

Findings

Major findings indicate that rewards cardholders and affinity cardholders tend to score higher within the RALTV framework than non-rewards cardholders and non-affinity cardholders, respectively. Among the four different modes of acquisition, the Internet generates the highest RALTV, followed by direct mail.

Originality/value

This paper not only controls for different types of consumer risks in the financial industry and creates a comprehensive risk-adjusted lifetime value (RALTV) model but also shows empirically the value of using RALTV over CLV for predicting future performance of a set of customers. Further, we investigate the impact of a firm’s acquisition and retention strategies on RALTV. The measure of risk-adjusted lifetime value is invaluable for managers in financial services.