{"title":"比特币高涨：加密货币价值、非法市场和美国大麻法案","authors":"Savva Shanaev, Efan Johnson, Mikhail Vasenin, Humnath Panta, Binam Ghimire","doi":"10.1108/jfrc-09-2023-0146","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Purpose</h3>\n<p>The purpose of this paper is to estimate the implications of illicit market use for the value of Bitcoin in an event studies framework.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Design/methodology/approach</h3>\n<p>This study uses a data set of 58 state-level marijuana decriminalisation and legalisation bills and referenda in the USA in 2010–2022.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Findings</h3>\n<p>Decriminalisation is associated with a strong and consistent positive Bitcoin price response around the event, recreational legalisation induces a more ambiguous reaction and medical legalisation is found to have a negative albeit small impact on Bitcoin value. This suggests decriminalisation enhances shadow economy use value of Bitcoin, whereas recreational and medical legalisation are not consistently reducing illicit drug cryptomarket activity. The effects are robust to various estimation windows, in subsamples, and also when outliers, heavy tails, conditional heteroskedasticity and state size are accounted for.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Originality/value</h3>\n<p>New to the literature, the choice of US marijuana bills, specifically as sample events, is based on both theoretical and empirical grounds.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->","PeriodicalId":44814,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"When Bitcoin is high: cryptocurrency value, illicit markets and US marijuana bills\",\"authors\":\"Savva Shanaev, Efan Johnson, Mikhail Vasenin, Humnath Panta, Binam Ghimire\",\"doi\":\"10.1108/jfrc-09-2023-0146\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<h3>Purpose</h3>\\n<p>The purpose of this paper is to estimate the implications of illicit market use for the value of Bitcoin in an event studies framework.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\\n<h3>Design/methodology/approach</h3>\\n<p>This study uses a data set of 58 state-level marijuana decriminalisation and legalisation bills and referenda in the USA in 2010–2022.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\\n<h3>Findings</h3>\\n<p>Decriminalisation is associated with a strong and consistent positive Bitcoin price response around the event, recreational legalisation induces a more ambiguous reaction and medical legalisation is found to have a negative albeit small impact on Bitcoin value. This suggests decriminalisation enhances shadow economy use value of Bitcoin, whereas recreational and medical legalisation are not consistently reducing illicit drug cryptomarket activity. The effects are robust to various estimation windows, in subsamples, and also when outliers, heavy tails, conditional heteroskedasticity and state size are accounted for.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\\n<h3>Originality/value</h3>\\n<p>New to the literature, the choice of US marijuana bills, specifically as sample events, is based on both theoretical and empirical grounds.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\",\"PeriodicalId\":44814,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-06-28\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1108/jfrc-09-2023-0146\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"BUSINESS, FINANCE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jfrc-09-2023-0146","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
When Bitcoin is high: cryptocurrency value, illicit markets and US marijuana bills
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to estimate the implications of illicit market use for the value of Bitcoin in an event studies framework.
Design/methodology/approach
This study uses a data set of 58 state-level marijuana decriminalisation and legalisation bills and referenda in the USA in 2010–2022.
Findings
Decriminalisation is associated with a strong and consistent positive Bitcoin price response around the event, recreational legalisation induces a more ambiguous reaction and medical legalisation is found to have a negative albeit small impact on Bitcoin value. This suggests decriminalisation enhances shadow economy use value of Bitcoin, whereas recreational and medical legalisation are not consistently reducing illicit drug cryptomarket activity. The effects are robust to various estimation windows, in subsamples, and also when outliers, heavy tails, conditional heteroskedasticity and state size are accounted for.
Originality/value
New to the literature, the choice of US marijuana bills, specifically as sample events, is based on both theoretical and empirical grounds.
期刊介绍：
Since its inception in 1992, the Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance has provided an authoritative and scholarly platform for international research in financial regulation and compliance. The journal is at the intersection between academic research and the practice of financial regulation, with distinguished past authors including senior regulators, central bankers and even a Prime Minister. Financial crises, predatory practices, internationalization and integration, the increased use of technology and financial innovation are just some of the changes and issues that contemporary financial regulators are grappling with. These challenges and changes hold profound implications for regulation and compliance, ranging from macro-prudential to consumer protection policies. The journal seeks to illuminate these issues, is pluralistic in approach and invites scholarly papers using any appropriate methodology. Accordingly, the journal welcomes submissions from finance, law, economics and interdisciplinary perspectives. A broad spectrum of research styles, sources of information and topics (e.g. banking laws and regulations, stock market and cross border regulation, risk assessment and management, training and competence, competition law, case law, compliance and regulatory updates and guidelines) are appropriate. All submissions are double-blind refereed and judged on academic rigour, originality, quality of exposition and relevance to policy and practice. Once accepted, individual articles are typeset, proofed and published online as the Version of Record within an average of 32 days, so that articles can be downloaded and cited earlier.
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