Feasibility and knowledge gaps to modeling circumpolar seabird bycatch in the Arctic

Alteration and diminution in sea ice cover in the Arctic region will give rise to an intensification and expansion of fishing activities in the Arctic and associated marginal seas. Increased fishing activity, especially in the summer, could pose a direct threat to the millions of seabirds breeding in this region, as well as non-breeding migrants, and potentially result in an increase of bycatch mortality. To inform what conservation and management actions may be needed, an analysis of where seabirds/fisheries interaction are most likely to occur is required. Here, we establish what information would be required to effectively model circumpolar bycatch risk of seabirds in the Arctic, and then we assess the availability of the requisite data. The quality and availability of fishing effort, and bycatch monitoring effort data are not homogeneous among Arctic countries. Undertaking a true circumpolar analysis at this time would be difficult, and with the current data accessibility, many assumptions would have to be made, potentially leading to caveats in the results. Improved communications between the various agencies and institutes working on fisheries and seabirds would strengthen the quantitative basis for future analyses. We offer suggestions on how to improve bycatch estimates and the identification of high-risk areas for seabird bycatch in the Arctic.