当人口统计（不是）命运时：探索 2020 年总统大选中拉丁裔选民的身份认同和议题交叉压力

IF 1.8 3区社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Social Science Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-06-27 DOI:10.1111/ssqu.13400

Álvaro J. Corral, David L. Leal

{"title":"当人口统计（不是）命运时：探索 2020 年总统大选中拉丁裔选民的身份认同和议题交叉压力","authors":"Álvaro J. Corral, David L. Leal","doi":"10.1111/ssqu.13400","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"ObjectiveScholars have struggled to understand Donald Trump's surprising levels of Latino support in two consecutive presidential elections. We test three hypotheses to better understand the strength and weakness of Trump, Biden, and both political parties.MethodsWe conduct bivariate and multivariate analyses of pre‐ and post‐election surveys to identify sources of support (beyond national origin differences) that explain how Trump improved his level of support among Latino voters to reach the low‐ to mid‐ 30 percent range.ResultsIntra‐Latino differences in ideology, identity (gender and religion), and immigration attitudes help explain Trump's relatively strong showing among Latinos in 2020.ConclusionWhile the nation's electorate is becoming more demographically diverse, many predictions associated with the notion of “demography as destiny” should be tempered given the political heterogeneity among Latino voters.","PeriodicalId":48253,"journal":{"name":"Social Science Quarterly","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"When demography is (not) destiny: Exploring identity and issue‐cross‐pressures among Latino voters in the 2020 presidential election\",\"authors\":\"Álvaro J. Corral, David L. Leal\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/ssqu.13400\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"ObjectiveScholars have struggled to understand Donald Trump's surprising levels of Latino support in two consecutive presidential elections. We test three hypotheses to better understand the strength and weakness of Trump, Biden, and both political parties.MethodsWe conduct bivariate and multivariate analyses of pre‐ and post‐election surveys to identify sources of support (beyond national origin differences) that explain how Trump improved his level of support among Latino voters to reach the low‐ to mid‐ 30 percent range.ResultsIntra‐Latino differences in ideology, identity (gender and religion), and immigration attitudes help explain Trump's relatively strong showing among Latinos in 2020.ConclusionWhile the nation's electorate is becoming more demographically diverse, many predictions associated with the notion of “demography as destiny” should be tempered given the political heterogeneity among Latino voters.\",\"PeriodicalId\":48253,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Social Science Quarterly\",\"volume\":\"14 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-06-27\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Social Science Quarterly\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"90\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1111/ssqu.13400\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"社会学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"POLITICAL SCIENCE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Social Science Quarterly","FirstCategoryId":"90","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ssqu.13400","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"POLITICAL SCIENCE","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

摘要

目标学者们一直在努力理解唐纳德-特朗普（Donald Trump）在连续两次总统选举中获得拉丁裔支持的惊人水平。我们检验了三个假设，以更好地理解特朗普、拜登以及两个政党的优势和劣势。方法我们对选举前后的调查进行了二元和多元分析，以确定支持来源（除民族血统差异外），从而解释特朗普如何提高其在拉美裔选民中的支持率，使其达到 30% 的中低水平。结果拉美裔选民在意识形态、身份认同（性别和宗教）以及移民态度方面的差异有助于解释特朗普 2020 年在拉美裔选民中表现相对强劲的原因。结论虽然美国选民的人口结构正变得越来越多样化，但鉴于拉美裔选民的政治异质性，许多与 "人口结构即命运 "概念相关的预测应有所节制。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

查看原文本刊更多论文

When demography is (not) destiny: Exploring identity and issue‐cross‐pressures among Latino voters in the 2020 presidential election

ObjectiveScholars have struggled to understand Donald Trump's surprising levels of Latino support in two consecutive presidential elections. We test three hypotheses to better understand the strength and weakness of Trump, Biden, and both political parties.MethodsWe conduct bivariate and multivariate analyses of pre‐ and post‐election surveys to identify sources of support (beyond national origin differences) that explain how Trump improved his level of support among Latino voters to reach the low‐ to mid‐ 30 percent range.ResultsIntra‐Latino differences in ideology, identity (gender and religion), and immigration attitudes help explain Trump's relatively strong showing among Latinos in 2020.ConclusionWhile the nation's electorate is becoming more demographically diverse, many predictions associated with the notion of “demography as destiny” should be tempered given the political heterogeneity among Latino voters.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

Social Science Quarterly Multiple-

CiteScore

3.40

自引率

10.50%

发文量

111

期刊介绍： Nationally recognized as one of the top journals in the field, Social Science Quarterly (SSQ) publishes current research on a broad range of topics including political science, sociology, economics, history, social work, geography, international studies, and women"s studies. SSQ is the journal of the Southwestern Social Science Association.