内在时间理论:入门指南

James B. Glattfelder, Richard B. Olsen
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引用次数: 0

摘要

时间的概念在金融和经济学中大多处于从属地位,其假设是时间是连续流动的,时间序列数据应按固定的等间距进行分析。然而,早在近 60 年前,基于事件的时间度量概念就已被首次提出。本文通过讨论内在时间范式、其起源、历史和现代应用,对这一主题进行了进一步阐述。与传统的连续时间测量方法不同,固有时间提出了一种基于事件的算法框架,能更准确地捕捉现实世界现象的动态和波动性质。这对复杂系统,特别是金融市场产生了意想不到的影响。例如,新的结构和规律性被揭示出来,否则任何利用等距时间间隔进行的分析都会掩盖这些结构和规律性。尤其令人感兴趣的是出现了多种缩放规律,这是复杂系统中基本组织原理的标志性特征。此外,这一新颖范式的核心洞察力是认识到普遍时间并不存在;相反,时间取决于观察者,是由复杂系统中展开的内在活动决定的。这项研究为经济建模和预测开辟了新的途径,为深入了解引导市场动态和金融系统演变和出现的无形力量铺平了道路。在固有时间的范式中,出现了令人兴奋的丰富可能性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Theory of Intrinsic Time: A Primer
The concept of time mostly plays a subordinate role in finance and economics. The assumption is that time flows continuously and that time series data should be analyzed at regular, equidistant intervals. Nonetheless, already nearly 60 years ago, the concept of an event-based measure of time was first introduced. This paper expands on this theme by discussing the paradigm of intrinsic time, its origins, history, and modern applications. Departing from traditional, continuous measures of time, intrinsic time proposes an event-based, algorithmic framework that captures the dynamic and fluctuating nature of real-world phenomena more accurately. Unsuspected implications arise in general for complex systems and specifically for financial markets. For instance, novel structures and regularities are revealed, otherwise obscured by any analysis utilizing equidistant time intervals. Of particular interest is the emergence of a multiplicity of scaling laws, a hallmark signature of an underlying organizational principle in complex systems. Moreover, a central insight from this novel paradigm is the realization that universal time does not exist; instead, time is observer-dependent, shaped by the intrinsic activity unfolding within complex systems. This research opens up new avenues for economic modeling and forecasting, paving the way for a deeper understanding of the invisible forces that guide the evolution and emergence of market dynamics and financial systems. An exciting and rich landscape of possibilities emerges within the paradigm of intrinsic time.
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