Didier P. Monselesan, James S. Risbey, Benoit Legresy, Sophie Cravatte, Bastien Pagli, Takeshi Izumo, Christopher C. Chapman, Mandy Freund, Abdelwaheb Hannachi, Damien Irving, P. Jyoteeshkumar Reddy, Doug Richardson, Dougal T. Squire, Carly R. Tozer
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To identify its tropical fingerprints and\nimpacts on the rest of the climate system, we propose a global approach based\non archetypal analysis (AA), a pattern recognition method based on the\nidentification of extreme configurations in the dataset under investigation.\nRelying on detrended sea surface temperature monthly anomalies over the 1982 to\n2022 period, the technique recovers central and eastern Pacific ENSO types\nidentified by more traditional methods and allows one to hierarchically add\nextra flavours and nuances to both persistent and transient phases of the\nphenomenon. Archetypal patterns found compare favorably to phase identification\nfrom K-means, fuzzy C-means and recently published network-based\nmachine-learning algorithms. The AA implementation is modified for the\nidentification of ENSO phases in sub-seasonal-to-seasonal prediction systems\nand complements current alert systems in characterising the diversity of ENSO\nand its teleconnections. 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引用次数: 0
摘要
厄尔尼诺/南方涛动(ENSO)对海面温度的全球影响有多种形式。为了识别它的热带指纹和对气候系统其他部分的影响,我们提出了一种基于原型分析(AA)的全球方法,这是一种基于识别调查数据集中极端配置的模式识别方法。依靠 1982 年至 2022 年期间的去趋势海面温度月度异常,该技术恢复了用更多传统方法识别的中太平洋和东太平洋厄尔尼诺/南方涛动类型,并允许人们分层次地为该现象的持续和瞬时阶段添加额外的味道和细微差别。所发现的原型模式与 K-均值、模糊 C-均值和最近发布的基于网络的机器学习算法的相位识别相比,效果更佳。AA 实现经过修改,可用于识别亚季节到季节预报系统中的厄尔尼诺/南方涛动阶段,并在描述厄尔尼诺/南方涛动及其远程联系的多样性方面对当前警报系统进行补充。从分析中得出的各种海洋和大气场的热带和热带外远缘联系组合显示出其稳健性和物理相关性。当基于海表温度的厄尔尼诺/南方涛动特征不确定时,将 AA 扩展到次表层海洋场可提高阶段之间的判别能力。我们表明,对去趋势海平面月度异常的 AA 可以更清晰地表达 ENSO 类型。
On the archetypal `flavours', indices and teleconnections of ENSO revealed by global sea surface temperatures
El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation global (ENSO) imprint on sea surface
temperature comes in many guises. To identify its tropical fingerprints and
impacts on the rest of the climate system, we propose a global approach based
on archetypal analysis (AA), a pattern recognition method based on the
identification of extreme configurations in the dataset under investigation.
Relying on detrended sea surface temperature monthly anomalies over the 1982 to
2022 period, the technique recovers central and eastern Pacific ENSO types
identified by more traditional methods and allows one to hierarchically add
extra flavours and nuances to both persistent and transient phases of the
phenomenon. Archetypal patterns found compare favorably to phase identification
from K-means, fuzzy C-means and recently published network-based
machine-learning algorithms. The AA implementation is modified for the
identification of ENSO phases in sub-seasonal-to-seasonal prediction systems
and complements current alert systems in characterising the diversity of ENSO
and its teleconnections. Tropical and extra-tropical teleconnection composites
from various oceanic and atmospheric fields derived from the analysis are shown
to be robust and physically relevant. Extending AA to sub-surface ocean fields
improves the discrimination between phases when the characterisation of ENSO
based on sea surface temperature is uncertain. We show that AA on detrended
sea-level monthly anomalies provides a clearer expression of ENSO types.