Genetic assessment of efficacy and safety profiles of coagulation cascade proteins identifies Factors II and XI as actionable anticoagulant targets.

Aims: Anticoagulants are routinely used by millions of patients worldwide to prevent blood clots. Yet, problems with anticoagulant therapy remain, including a persistent and cumulative bleeding risk in patients undergoing prolonged anticoagulation. New safer anticoagulant targets are needed.

Methods and results: To prioritize anticoagulant targets with the strongest efficacy [venous thromboembolism (VTE) prevention] and safety (low bleeding risk) profiles, we performed two-sample Mendelian randomization and genetic colocalization. We leveraged three large-scale plasma protein data sets (deCODE as discovery data set and Fenland and Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities as replication data sets] and one liver gene expression data set (Institut Universitaire de Cardiologie et de Pneumologie de Québec bariatric biobank) to evaluate evidence for a causal effect of 26 coagulation cascade proteins on VTE from a new genome-wide association meta-analysis of 44 232 VTE cases and 847 152 controls, stroke subtypes, bleeding outcomes, and parental lifespan as an overall measure of efficacy/safety ratio. A 1 SD genetically predicted reduction in F2 blood levels was associated with lower risk of VTE [odds ratio (OR) = 0.44, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.38-0.51, P = 2.6e-28] and cardioembolic stroke risk (OR = 0.55, 95% CI = 0.39-0.76, P = 4.2e-04) but not with bleeding (OR = 1.13, 95% CI = 0.93-1.36, P = 2.2e-01). Genetically predicted F11 reduction was associated with lower risk of VTE (OR = 0.61, 95% CI = 0.58-0.64, P = 4.1e-85) and cardioembolic stroke (OR = 0.77, 95% CI = 0.69-0.86, P = 4.1e-06) but not with bleeding (OR = 1.01, 95% CI = 0.95-1.08, P = 7.5e-01). These Mendelian randomization associations were concordant across the three blood protein data sets and the hepatic gene expression data set as well as colocalization analyses.

Conclusion: These results provide strong genetic evidence that F2 and F11 may represent safe and efficacious therapeutic targets to prevent VTE and cardioembolic strokes without substantially increasing bleeding risk.