澳大利亚城市的城市密度、家庭过度拥挤和 COVID-19 的传播

IF 3.8 2区 医学 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH
Shanaka Herath , Adelle Mansour , Rebecca Bentley
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引用次数: 0

摘要

联合国人居署《2020 年世界城市报告》强调,导致 COVID-19 传播的主要因素是住房过于拥挤,而不是城市密度。首尔、新加坡、东京和纽约等人口密集的城市在控制病毒传播方面相对成功的能力也证明了这一点。我们假设,鉴于人地之间互动的复杂性,密度和拥挤程度对传染病传播的相对作用可能取决于当地因素。为了直接比较城市密度和家庭拥挤程度的作用,我们研究了澳大利亚三大城市悉尼、墨尔本和布里斯班在 2021 年 7 月至 2022 年 1 月大流行期间 COVID-19 发病率的关系。我们使用经空间自相关性调整的生态模型以及年龄和社会经济因素的地区级衡量标准,评估了人口密度、家庭过度拥挤与当地社区 COVID-19 感染之间的关联。与普遍假设不同的是,我们发现有证据表明,密度和过度拥挤对 COVID-19 感染的影响取决于城市和城市中的地区;也就是说,取决于当地的具体情况。例如,在悉尼西南郊区,总密度每增加一个单位,病例率就会降低 0.4 到 6.4,而总拥挤度每增加一个单位,病例率就会增加 0.01 到 9.6。这些发现对制定大流行病应对策略具有重要意义:针对密度(如封锁和限制旅行范围)或过度拥挤(如限制相对于住所的人数、在室内戴口罩、优先接种疫苗)的公共卫生措施必须认识到其实施的地域背景。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Urban density, household overcrowding and the spread of COVID-19 in Australian cities

The UN-Habitat World Cities Report 2020 highlighted that overcrowded housing, not urban density, is the major contributing factor to the spread of COVID-19. The relatively successful ability of densely populated cities such as Seoul, Singapore, Tokyo and New York City to manage virus spread supports this. We hypothesise that, given the complexity of the interaction between people and place, the relative contribution of density and crowding to the spread of infectious diseases may be contingent on local factors. To directly compare the role of urban density and household overcrowding, we examine each in relation to COVID-19 incidence in the three largest cities in Australia, Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, as the pandemic unfolded from July 2021 to January 2022. Using ecological models adjusted for spatial autocorrelation and area-level measures of age and socio-economic factors, we assess the association between population density, overcrowding in homes, and COVID-19 infections in local neighbourhoods. Challenging prevailing assumptions, we find evidence for an effect of both density and overcrowding on COVID-19 infections depending on the city and area within cities; that is, depending on the local context. For example, in the southwestern suburbs of Sydney, the case rate decreases by between 0.4 and 6.4 with every one-unit increase in gross density however the case rate increases by between 0.01 and 9.6 with every one-unit increase in total overcrowding. These findings have important implications for developing pandemic response strategies: public health measures that target either density (e.g., lockdowns and restricted range of travel) or overcrowding (e.g., restricting number of people relative to dwelling, mask-wearing indoors, vaccination prioritisation) must be cognisant of the geographically local contexts in which they are implemented.

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来源期刊
Health & Place
Health & Place PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH-
CiteScore
7.70
自引率
6.20%
发文量
176
审稿时长
29 days
期刊介绍: he journal is an interdisciplinary journal dedicated to the study of all aspects of health and health care in which place or location matters.
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