考虑碳强度指标等级限制和不确定燃料价格的双燃料船舶加油优化

Yiwei Wu , Haoran Guo , Jingwen Qi , Shuaian Wang , Lu Zhen
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引用次数: 0

摘要

班轮的加油决策面临着燃料价格波动和碳排放限制的双重挑战。本文提出了一种多阶段随机编程模型,以解决碳强度指标(CII)等级限制和碳税成本下的双燃料船舶加油问题。该模型还考虑了各种因素,包括主发动机和辅助发动机的燃料消耗、停靠港口的燃料供应以及燃料价格波动。采用情景规模选择法和矩匹配法求解拟议模型,并采用贪婪启发式算法加快求解过程。多项式逻辑回归和敏感性分析为管理提供了启示。我们的数值结果表明,低硫燃料油(LSFO)的加注决策与 LSFO 和液化天然气(LNG)燃料价格的差异密切相关,当 LSFO 燃料价格或液化天然气可用性的方差减小时,LSFO 变得更具吸引力。此外,当碳税超过一定临界值时,碳排放成本也会成为真正的考虑因素。这些见解有助于从业人员更好地理解碳排放和燃料价格波动对船舶加油问题的耦合影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Ship refueling optimization for dual-fuel ships considering carbon intensity indicator rating limit and uncertain fuel prices

Refueling decisions of liner ships are facing challenges from both fuel price fluctuations and carbon emission constraints. This paper proposes a multistage stochastic programming model to tackle the refueling problem for dual-fuel ships under carbon intensity indicator (CII) rating limit and carbon tax costs. The model also takes into account various factors, including fuel consumption of main and auxiliary engines, fuel availability at ports of call, and fuel price fluctuations. The proposed model is solved using scenario size selection and moment matching methods, and a greedy heuristic algorithm is adopted to speed up the process. Managerial insights are obtained from multinomial logistic regression and sensitivity analyses. Our numerical results reveal that low sulfur fuel oil (LSFO) refueling decisions are closely linked to the difference of LSFO and liquefied natural gas (LNG) fuel prices and that LSFO becomes more attractive when the variance of LSFO fuel price or the LNG availability decreases. Besides, carbon emission costs are found to become a true consideration when carbon taxes exceed a certain threshold. These insights can help practitioners better understand the coupling influence of carbon emissions and fuel price fluctuations on the ship refueling problem.

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