Recruitment of European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax) in northerly UK estuaries indicates a mismatch between spawning and fisheries closure periods

European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax) is a species of high commercial and recreational value, but it exhibits highly variable recruitment rates and has been subject to recent declines. Emergency management measures put in place to protect spawning stocks include the annual closure of commercial and recreational fisheries over a 2-month, February–March, window. Whether this protection measure is having the desired outcome for this data-poor species remains unclear. Otolith microstructural analyses (counts and widths of daily growth rings and check marks indicative of settlement) were used to estimate (1) spawn timing, (2) pelagic larval duration and settlement timing, (3) growth rate and condition, and (4) the otolith-fish size relationship for juvenile European sea bass caught from two estuaries in Wales (Dwyryd, Y Foryd), located at the northern edge of the species range. We observed a significant mismatch between the timing of fisheries closures and the spawning, with 99.2% of recruits having been spawned after the fishery had reopened (back-calculated median spawn date = May 5 ± 17 days SD), suggesting that the closure may be too early to adequately protect this population. Further, we present the first empirically derived estimates of pelagic larval duration for sea bass recruits settling in UK habitats, which showed a strong negative relationship with spawn date. Finally, we found significant differences in fish condition between the two estuaries, suggesting local variation in habitat quality. The results suggest that the timing of current fisheries closures may not be adequately protecting the spawners supplying these northernmost estuaries, which are likely to become increasingly important as sea bass distributions shift northward in our climate future.