{"title":"分析全美经济趋同:人均国内生产总值轨迹的生存分析方法","authors":"Diego Vallarino","doi":"10.57017/jaes.v19.2(84).03","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Machine learning algorithms, and economic interpretation, integrated with survival analysis, are used to examine the temporal dynamics associated with achieving a 5% increase in purchasing power parity-adjusted GDP per capita over a period of 120 months (2013-2022). The comparative investigation reveals that DeepSurv effectively captures non-linear interactions, though standard models exhibit comparable performance under certain conditions. The weight matrix evaluates the economic implications of vulnerabilities, risks, and capacities. To meet the GDP per capita objective, the findings emphasize the necessity of a balanced approach to risk-taking, strategic vulnerability reduction, and investment in governmental capacities and social cohesiveness. The policy guidelines advocate for individualized approaches that account for the complex dynamics at play in decision-making processes.","PeriodicalId":385824,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Economic Sciences (JAES)","volume":"49 21","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Analysing Economic Convergence Across the America: A Survival Analysis Approach to GDP Per Capita Trajectories\",\"authors\":\"Diego Vallarino\",\"doi\":\"10.57017/jaes.v19.2(84).03\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Machine learning algorithms, and economic interpretation, integrated with survival analysis, are used to examine the temporal dynamics associated with achieving a 5% increase in purchasing power parity-adjusted GDP per capita over a period of 120 months (2013-2022). The comparative investigation reveals that DeepSurv effectively captures non-linear interactions, though standard models exhibit comparable performance under certain conditions. The weight matrix evaluates the economic implications of vulnerabilities, risks, and capacities. To meet the GDP per capita objective, the findings emphasize the necessity of a balanced approach to risk-taking, strategic vulnerability reduction, and investment in governmental capacities and social cohesiveness. The policy guidelines advocate for individualized approaches that account for the complex dynamics at play in decision-making processes.\",\"PeriodicalId\":385824,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Applied Economic Sciences (JAES)\",\"volume\":\"49 21\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-06-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Applied Economic Sciences (JAES)\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.57017/jaes.v19.2(84).03\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Applied Economic Sciences (JAES)","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.57017/jaes.v19.2(84).03","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
我们利用机器学习算法和经济解释,结合生存分析,研究了在 120 个月(2013-2022 年)内实现经购买力平价调整后的人均 GDP 增长 5%的相关时间动态。比较调查显示,尽管标准模型在某些条件下表现出可比性,但 DeepSurv 能有效捕捉非线性相互作用。权重矩阵评估了脆弱性、风险和能力对经济的影响。为了实现人均 GDP 目标,研究结果强调,必须采取平衡的方法来承担风险、战略性地降低脆弱性,以及投资于政府能力和社会凝聚力。政策指导方针主张采取个性化的方法,考虑到决策过程中复杂的动态因素。
Analysing Economic Convergence Across the America: A Survival Analysis Approach to GDP Per Capita Trajectories
Machine learning algorithms, and economic interpretation, integrated with survival analysis, are used to examine the temporal dynamics associated with achieving a 5% increase in purchasing power parity-adjusted GDP per capita over a period of 120 months (2013-2022). The comparative investigation reveals that DeepSurv effectively captures non-linear interactions, though standard models exhibit comparable performance under certain conditions. The weight matrix evaluates the economic implications of vulnerabilities, risks, and capacities. To meet the GDP per capita objective, the findings emphasize the necessity of a balanced approach to risk-taking, strategic vulnerability reduction, and investment in governmental capacities and social cohesiveness. The policy guidelines advocate for individualized approaches that account for the complex dynamics at play in decision-making processes.