关于影响投资决策的过度自信及相关偏见的系统文献综述

Uttam Karki, Vaneet Bhatia, Dheeraj Sharma
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在当前的市场环境下,人们发现偏见是影响投资决策的最重要因素之一。在这些偏差中,过度自信是管理者在决策时容易表现出的一种普遍现象。为了了解过度自信偏差在投资决策中的作用,本研究对当前有关过度自信偏差的研究进行了深入的审视和整合。为实现这一目标,本研究采用 PRISMA 方法对文献进行了系统性回顾,并对过去 20 年中发表的 92 篇期刊论文进行了研究。结果表明,另两种偏差--后见和确认--与过度自信偏差有关。综上所述,研究表明偏见会导致三种主要结果。第一个方面是积极的,与促进心理健康和大量研发投资有关。与此相反,第二个消极方面涉及对经营现金流的操纵,这往往会降低股东的价值。第三,内部融资优于外部融资。此外,研究还提出了可以克服过度自信偏差影响的因素。本研究通过专题分析展示了其独创性,有效地研究了偏见的多个维度。此外,纳入这些研究成果可以加强管理决策过程,促进更客观的评估,并最终提高投资选择的整体质量。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A Systematic Literature Review on Overconfidence and Related Biases Influencing Investment Decision Making
In the current market scenario, it has been observed that biases are among the most significant factors influencing investment decisions. Among these biases, overconfidence is a common phenomenon managers tend to exhibit while making decisions. To understand the role of overconfidence bias in investment decision making, this study thoroughly scrutinizes and consolidates the current research on overconfidence bias. To achieve the objective, this study performs a systematic review of literature utilizing the PRISMA approach and examines 92 journal articles published in the last 20 years. Resultssuggestthattheother twobiases—hindsightandconfirmation—arerelated tooverconfidencebias. Inaddi-tion, the review suggests that biases result in three major outcomes. The first, positive, aspect pertains to the promotion of mental well-being and significant allocation to research and development investments. Conversely, the second, negative, aspect involves the manipulation of operating cash flow, which tends to diminish the value of shareholders. Third, there is a preference for internal financing over external financing options. Furthermore, the research also suggests factors that may overcome the influence of the overconfidence bias. This study demonstrates its originality through thematic analysis, which effectively examines multiple dimensions of biases. Moreover, incorporating these research findings can enhance managerial decision-making processes, promote more objective assessments, and ultimately improve the overall quality of investment choices.
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