地形锁定的昼夜对流的未来极端降水系统:使用大涡流模拟集合的益处

Wei‐Ting Chen, Yu-Hung Chang, Chien‐Ming Wu, Huai-Yi Huang
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摘要

地形锁定对流的降水热点在很大程度上取决于支配当地能量和云动力学的物理过程之间的相互作用。要准确估计这些热点的未来变化,需要一个具有足够空间分辨率的模式,以及对关键物理过程的适当表示。在本研究中,我们设计了TaiwanVVM大涡旋模拟集合(Δx=500 m),以捕捉台湾夏季本地环流占主导地位的昼夜对流。长期观测所确定的降水热点在具有适当环境变率的现今集合模拟中得到了很好的体现。通过伪全球变暖实验来确定对流结构的变化,从而确定局地降雨量的变化。在相对湿度保持不变的 3-K 均匀升温情景下,热力学环境变化的特点是对流可用势能(CAPE)总体升高,对流抑制(CIN)略有下降,原因是海洋边界层的低层水汽明显增加。结果表明,平均降水量和极端对流系统(ECSs)的发生率增加,山区的热点向山麓和平原扩展。云动力学响应导致更多短时强降雨事件。对最大降雨量超过 100 毫米/小时-1 的极端对流系统的跟踪显示,短时 ECSs(生命期小于 6 小时)数量增加,最大上升气流增强了 ~10 米/秒-1,云顶高度增加了 ~1 千米,云物体的体积增加了 ~1.5 倍。这些特定天气形势下的高分辨率模拟结果为评估地形锁定昼夜对流导致的未来极端降雨量变化对自然灾害和水资源的潜在影响提供了重要信息。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The future extreme precipitation systems of orographically locked diurnal convection: the benefits of using large-eddy simulation ensembles
The precipitation hotspot of the orographically locked convection highly depends on the interactions among physical processes governing local energetics and cloud dynamics. Accurately estimating the future change of these hotspots will require a model with sufficient spatial resolution as well as an appropriate representation of the critical physical processes. In this study, ensembles of TaiwanVVM large-eddy simulations (Δx=500 m) were designed to capture the summertime diurnal convection in Taiwan when local circulation dominates. The precipitation hotspots identified by long-term observations are well represented by the present-day ensemble simulations with appropriate environment variabilities. A pseudo global warming experiment is carried out to identify changes in convective structures, which results in local rainfall changes. Under the scenario of 3-K uniform warming with conserved relative humidity, the changes in the thermodynamic environment feature an overall higher convective available potential energy (CAPE) and a small decrease in convective inhibition (CIN), owing to the marked increase in low-level water vapor in the marine boundary layer. The results show that mean precipitation and the occurrence of extreme convective systems (ECSs) increase, with hotspots over mountains expanding toward the foothills and plains. The response in cloud dynamics leads to more short-duration, intense rainfall events. The tracking of extreme convective systems with maximum rainfall exceeding 100 mm hr-1 reveals more numerous short-lived ECSs (lifetime < 6 hr) and the enhancements in maximum updrafts by ~10 m s-1, in cloud top heights by ~1 km, and in the volume of cloud objects by ~1.5 folds. These sets of high-resolution simulations under the specific weather regime offer critical information for assessing the potential impacts of the future changes of extreme rainfall contributed by the orographically locked diurnal convection on natural disasters and water resources.
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