人类世的人口动态与能源消耗之间的联系

Mauricio Lima
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摘要

我们现在的世界是人类人口规模及其通过燃烧化石燃料统治生物圈的结果。自 1950 年以来,人类的全球能源消耗、经济生产力和人口增长速度突然加快。这种系统动力学的突然偏离被定义为 "大加速"。如果不使用化石燃料,过去 70 年间人口和经济的加速扩张是不可能实现的。然而,还没有任何研究将全球范围内的人类人口动态与能源消耗增长率、经济增长和化石燃料的能源投资回报率(EROI)的历史变化明确联系起来。在本研究中,我运用了一个简单的合作/竞争人口动态模型来解读这些因素的变化对(1800-2020 年)期间人类人口动态的影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The link between human population dynamics and energy consumption during the Anthropocene
Our present world is the consequence of the size of the human population and its domination of the biosphere through the combustion of fossil fuels. Since ~1950, there has been a sudden increase in the rate of human global energy consumption, economic productivity, and population growth. This abrupt departure of the system dynamics has been defined as the “Great Acceleration.” The accelerated population and economic expansion during the past 70 years would have been impossible without using fossil fuels. However, no studies have made an explicit connection between human population dynamics on a global scale and historical changes in energy consumption growth rates, economic growth, and the energy return on investment of fossil fuels (EROI). In this study, I apply a simple population dynamic model of cooperation/competition to decipher the effects of changes in these factors on the dynamics of the human population during the period (1800–2020).
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