1961-2020 年梅雨期江淮气旋的气候特征及其与降水的联系

Ran Zhu, Lei Chen
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摘要

摘要本研究探讨了梅雨期(1961-2020 年)202 个江淮气旋的气候特征及其与降水的关系。结果表明,气旋主要发源于湖北省东部和西部。此外,我们还探讨了气旋强度、半径的统计特征及其正相关性。在研究气旋的十年变化时,我们发现气旋与梅雨降水之间存在相似的演变。因此,我们进一步研究了江淮气旋与梅雨期降水之间的相关性。两者之间的正相关系数为 0.77。值得注意的是,受气旋活动影响的降水比例高达 47%。在北纬 27°以北,气旋造成的降水异常增加最大可达 7 毫米/天。当气旋出现时,蒙古上空 500 hPa 水平的负位势高度异常可追溯到第 -4 天。异常增强的 WPSH(西太平洋副热带高气压)、西南低空喷流和负位势高度是造成江淮气旋期间降水异常的主要因素。气旋发生前后,低纬度水汽通量和辐散异常增加,为气旋降水的产生提供了充足的水汽条件。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Climatic characteristics of the Jianghuai cyclone and its linkage with precipitation during the Meiyu period from 1961 to 2020
Abstract. This study examines the climatic characteristics of 202 Jianghuai cyclones and their linkage with precipitation during the Meiyu period from 1961 to 2020. The results show that cyclones mainly originate from the eastern and western Hubei Province. Additionally, we explore the statistical characteristics of intensity, radius and their positive correlation. In studying the decadal variation of cyclones, we find a similar evolution between the cyclones and Meiyu precipitation. Therefore, we further investigate the correlation between the Jianghuai cyclones and the precipitation during the Meiyu period. There is a positive correlation coefficient of 0.77 between them. Notably, the percentage of precipitation affected by cyclone activities can reach up to 47 %. The anomalous increase in precipitation caused by cyclones north of 27° N can reach a maximum of 7 mm d−1. When a cyclone exists, a significant negative geopotential height anomaly at the 500 hPa level over Mongolia can be traced back to day −4. The abnormally enhanced WPSH (western Pacific subtropical high), southwesterly low-level jet and negative geopotential height are the dominant factors causing abnormal precipitation during Jianghuai cyclones. Before and after the cyclone develops, water vapor flux and divergence from low latitudes increase abnormally, providing sufficient water vapor conditions for the generation of cyclone precipitation.
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