The power of specific emotion analysis in predicting donations: A comparative empirical study between sentiment and specific emotion analysis in social media

This paper investigates the role of sentiment and specific emotion analysis in forecasting donation behaviour within the context of social networking services (SNSs). The study empirically examines the influence of sentiment and specific emotion analysis on donation behaviour for two non-profit organizations (NPOs): The Fred Hollows Foundation (The Foundation) in both Australia and New Zealand, and The University of Auckland (UOA) in New Zealand. We collected and analysed 298,569 tweets from 106,349 users mentioning these NPOs, along with 5,175,359 tweets mentioning the top 20 US brands from 1,623,113 users. We found that NPOs are often associated with brands that induce joy. Furthermore, sadness expressed by marketers and joy expressed by users positively affected donations to The Foundation, while user-expressed anger positively influenced donations to UOA within the same month. A two-month rolling average analysis highlighted the significant effect of lingering negative emotions on monthly donations over time. Specific emotion analysis outperforms sentiment analysis by demonstrating a higher effect size ( R 2). We advocate for the application of the transformer-transfer learning method for specific emotion analysis when scrutinizing large-scale social media data and devising fundraising strategies.