Scenario analysis tool for estimating future waste composition and amounts toward a circular economy

Municipal solid waste management has a potential to increase circularity by reduction of virgin material extraction and use of secondary materials. A scenario analysis tool was developed to assess whether circular economy goals are attainable with the existing infrastructure and technologies by calculating sorting and recycling rates using waste amount and composition estimations. Three scenarios, Current Road (business as usual), Circular Road (improved sorting) and Frugal Road (waste reduction), were developed and implemented. Sorting rates targets for food waste are achieved in all scenarios. For plastic, sorting rate targets are achieved only for Circular and Frugal, while European Union recycling targets are not reached in any, showing the important role of recycling efficiency. Policy makers can use the scenario development approach of this study to evaluate if circular economy goals are attainable with the current system and assess the impact of key factors such as waste generation and sorting behavior. The scenario analysis tool can be utilized to simulate the effects of different measures in the waste amounts and composition, which is crucial for the planning of the future management system. Further, sorting and recycling rates provide quantitative information about the circularity gap and qualitative information on bottlenecks and opportunities.