气候变暖对北半球大尺度大气系统的影响

Zahra Mahavarpour, Javad Khoshhal Dastjerdi, Seyed Abolfazl Masoudian, Mohammad Ali Nasresfahani
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摘要

在本研究中,我们利用 40 年(1979-2018 年)ERA-Interim 再分析数据,研究了气候变暖对北半球主要气候驱动因素变率的影响。我们采用森氏斜率估算器和曼肯道尔显著性检验来识别 500-1000 hPa 厚度显著变化的区域。研究结果表明,气候变暖在纬度 80º 至 90º 以及亚热带地区尤为明显。由于气候变暖,夏季中纬度地区的厚度增加最为明显。与其他季节相比,秋季观测到的趋势斜率更陡,表明气候变暖速度更快。此外,尽管气候变暖,但大尺度大气环流系统的显著趋势表明,西伯利亚高压在冬季和秋季有所增强。此外,亚速尔群岛高压系统核心的一部分在冬季也有所增强。相反,季风和阿留申低压系统则分别在春季和冬季减弱。副热带高压系统在冬季、春季和夏季表现出积极和显著的趋势,与大气厚度观测到的积极显著趋势一致,从而证实了气候变暖的影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The effects of climate warming on large-scale atmospheric systems of the Northern Hemisphere
In the present study, we examine the impact of climate warming on the variability of the main climatic drivers in the northern hemisphere, using 40 years (1979-2018) of ERA-Interim reanalysis data. We applied Sen’s slope estimator and the Mann-Kendall significance test to identify regions with significant variability of 500-1000 hPa thickness. The findings reveal that climate warming is particularly pronounced at latitudes ranging from 80º to 90º and also in subtropical regions. The increase in thickness is most notable in mid-latitudes during the summer season, owing to climate warming. The steeper trend slope observed in autumn indicates a faster warming rate compared to other seasons. Moreover, despite climate warming, significant trends in large-scale atmospheric circulation systems demonstrate the strengthening of the Siberian high-pressure in winter and autumn. Additionally, a segment of the core of the Azores high-pressure system has also experienced strengthening during winter. Conversely, the monsoon and Aleutian low-pressure systems have weakened in spring and winter, respectively. The subtropical high-pressure system exhibits a positive and significant trend in winter, spring, and summer, aligning with the positive significant trends observed in atmospheric thickness, thereby confirming the effects of climate warming.
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