经合组织国家在人口老龄化和 65 岁及以上人口状况方面有何不同?使用聚类分析的证据

Agata Szymańska
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摘要

该研究比较了老龄化进程所创造的条件。该研究从宏观角度认识到 2020 年(即 Covid-19 大流行的第一年)34 个经合组织国家 65 岁及以上人口状况的差异。本文分析了经合组织经济体在一组代表不同宏观层面的选定变量方面的(不)相似性。通过聚类分析和线性排序,可以将各国划分为不同的群组。由卢森堡、比利时、法国和西班牙组成的聚类与由墨西哥和土耳其组成的聚类以及由韩国、拉脱维亚、日本和立陶宛组成的聚类相比,差异最为明显。影响国家分组的变量包括老年收入贫困、养老金形式的公共转移支付、有效劳动力市场退出年龄以及男女预期退休年限之间的差异。2020 年的分组分析还揭示了欧洲国家与其他经合组织经济体之间的普遍差异,以及地区差异的重要性。结果还表明,这些聚类与文献中概述的经合组织国家基于养老金制度类型的差异部分吻合。最后,将 2020 年的分组与 Covid-19 大流行前的结果(2018 年)进行比较表明,排名最高和最低分组的国家对大流行的冲击具有抵抗力。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
How do OECD countries differ in population ageing and the situation of people aged 65 and older? Evidence using cluster analysis
The study compares the conditions created by ageing processes. It recognises differences in the situation of people aged 65 and older from a macrolevel perspective in 34 OECD countries in 2020, that is, the first year of the Covid‐19 pandemic. The paper analyses the (dis)similarities of OECD economies with regard to a set of selected variables that represent different macrolevel dimensions. Cluster analysis and linear ordering were applied, which made it possible to group the countries into separate clusters. The most obvious difference was found for the cluster consisting of Luxembourg, Belgium, France, and Spain, relative to the group that includes Mexico and Türkiye and the cluster that comprises Korea, Latvia, Japan, and Lithuania. Influential variables for grouping countries were old‐age income poverty, public transfers in the form of pensions, effective labour market exit age, and differences between expected years in retirement for women and men. The cluster analysis for 2020 also revealed the general difference between European countries and the rest of the OECD economies, as well as the importance of regional differences. The results also indicate that the clusters partially correspond to the differentiation of OECD countries based on the typology of the pension regimes, as outlined in the literature. Finally, comparing the 2020 clusters with the pre‐Covid‐19 pandemic results (2018) indicates that countries in the top and bottom‐ranked groups were resistant to the pandemic shock.
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