Modeling Fertilization Outcome in a Changing World.

Marine organisms have complex life histories. For broadcast spawners, successful continuation of the population requires their small gametes to make contact in the water column for sufficiently long periods for fertilization to occur. Anthropogenic climate change has been shown to impact fertilization success in various marine invertebrates, including sea urchins, which are key grazers in their habitats. Gamete performance of both sexes declined when exposed to elevated temperatures and/or pCO2 levels. Examples of reduced performance included slower sperm swimming speed and thinning egg jelly coat. However, such responses to climate change stress were not uniform between individuals. Such variations could serve as the basis for selection. Fertilization kinetics have long been modeled as a particle collision process. Here, we present a modified fertilization kinetics model that incorporates individual variations in performance in a more environmentally relevant regime, and which the performance of groups with different traits can be separately tracked in a mixture. Numerical simulations highlight that fertilization outcomes are influenced by changes in gamete traits as they age in sea water and the presence of competition groups (multiple dams or sires). These results highlight the importance of considering multiple individuals and at multiple time points during in vivo assays. We also applied our model to show that interspecific variation in climate stress vulnerabilities elevates the risk of hybridization. By making a numerical model open-source, we aim to help us better understand the fate of organisms in the face of climate change by enabling the community to consider the mean and variance of the response to capture adaptive potential.