[Prognostic factors for substantial clinical benefit from musculoskeletal pathologies of the shoulder].

Introduction: shoulder plain is a common cause of complain, however a precise diagnosis is hard to achieve. This is why finding factors associated to a good prognosis could help to improve our clinical practice.

Objective: to identify demographic and clinical characteristics from the initial assessment associated with substantial clinical benefit (SCB) in patients with shoulder pain one month after treatment or at patient's discharge.

Material and methods: this was a secondary analysis of a prospective cohort of patients with shoulder pain. Demographic and clinical (self-reported scales) factors associated with SCB at discharge or four weeks after the initial assessment, were analyzed. SCB was defined as a score +5 on a Global Rating of Change. A logistic regression model was made in order to identify predictors of SCB. The area under the curve ROC was used to assess the performance of the model with its independent variables.

Results: 101 patients of 138 were analyzed. The median age was 55 (RIQ 37-61) years old, there were 55 (54.5%) women in the sample. The variables independently associated to SCB were fracture as a reason for admission [adjusted OR 11.8 (95% CI 1.4-101.8); p = 0.024], and durations of shoulder symptoms shorter than seven months [adjusted OR 4.63 (95% CI 1.9-11.1); p = 0.001].

Conclusion: the diagnosis of fracture and durations of shoulder symptoms shorter than seven months were independently associated with a SCB after one month of treatment or at the patient's discharge.