Model-based catalyst screening and optimal experimental design for the oxidative coupling of methane

The oxidative coupling of methane (OCM) to produce ethane and ethylene (C2 compounds) as platform chemicals involves complex chemistry with reactions both in the gas phase and on the catalyst surface, resulting in a distribution of products at the expense of C2 selectivity. This work uses experimental data from a variety of mixed metal oxides on supports at different reaction conditions (temperature, contact time, and reactant flow rates) to train a random forest regressor that predicts methane conversion and C2 selectivity (key performance indicators (KPIs)). The kinetically validated random forest models are deployed to locate optimal conditions that maximize C2 yield for each of the catalysts. Investigating the regressor interpretability via feature importance reveals that the choice of metals and support are crucial to C2 selectivity predictions in addition to the reaction conditions, while the predictions of methane conversion are largely governed by the reaction conditions. The machine learning (ML) regressor is used as a kinetic surrogate to find a locus of optimal reaction conditions that maximize both selectivity-conversion for each of the catalysts via a multi-objective optimization routine. The maximum C2 yields for catalysts are projected to be improved by 15% on average. Analyzing the catalysts with respect to a popular OCM catalyst, Mn-Na${}_2$WO${}_4$/SiO${}_2$, using the optimal locus eliminates variability in the process conditions to reveal distinct patterns based on intrinsic properties of metals and supports. Further, the decision space with catalyst descriptors and reaction conditions is optimized for high C2 yields using the ML surrogate, in a static multi-objective optimization routine, and an adaptive Bayesian routine, where the latter was found to have a wider field focus in proposing catalyst formulations and reaction conditions. Transition metal oxides on a variety of supports were proposed but not their lanthanide oxide counterparts. The framework has the potential to lend itself to materials acceleration platforms where it is crucial to consider multi-scale phenomena that impact downstream KPIs.