Can Pretreatment MRI and Planning CT Radiomics Improve Prediction of Complete Pathological Response in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer Following Neoadjuvant Treatment?

Objective(s): The treatment response to neoadjuvant chemoradiation (nCRT) differs largely in individuals treated for rectal cancer. In this study, we investigated the role of radiomics to predict the pathological response in locally advanced rectal cancers at different treatment time points: (1) before the start of any treatment using baseline T2-weighted MRI (T2W-MR) and (2) at the start of radiation treatment using planning CT.

Methods: Patients on nCRT followed by surgery between June 2017 to December 2019 were included in the study. Histopathological tumour response grading (TRG) was used for classification, and gross tumour volume was defined by the radiation oncologists. Following resampling, 100 and 103 pyradiomic features were extracted from T2W-MR and planning CT images, respectively. Synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) was used to address class imbalance. Four machine learning classifiers built clinical, radiomic, and merged models. Model performances were evaluated on a held-out test dataset following 3-fold cross-validation using area under the receiver operator characteristic curves (AUC) with bootstrap 95% confidence intervals.

Results: One hundred and fifty patients were included; 58/150 with TRG 1 were classified as complete responders, and rest were incomplete responders (IR). Clinical models performed better (AUC = 0.68) compared to radiomics models (AUC = 0.62). Overall, the clinical + T2W-MR model showed best performance (AUC = 0.72) in predicting the pathological response prior to therapy. Clinical + Planning CT-merged models could only achieve the highest AUC of 0.66.

Conclusion: Merging clinical and baseline T2W-MR radiomics enhances predicting pathological response in rectal cancer. Validation in larger cohorts is warranted, especially for watch and wait strategies.