How Financial Risk Affects Indonesia Sovereign Sukuk Market Development

Global bond market attention is starting to witness very interesting developments in the development of Sukuk. However, the academic literature on the determinants of the development of the Sukuk market is still new and very limited. Using the Vector Autoregression (VAR)/Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) method, this study examines how the financial risk component influences the development of the Indonesian sovereign Sukuk market. Data was collected from Bank Indonesia and Indonesia’s Directorate General of Financing and Risk Management on the External Debt Statistics database for ten years from 2013Q1-2023Q1. The results of this study indicate that the foreign Debt Service Ratio (DSR) and Exchange Rate (EXC) significantly affect the development of the sovereign Sukuk Market. The foreign DSR has a negative effect, while the EXC positively affects the development of the sovereign Sukuk market. Meanwhile, the ratio of foreign debt to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has an insignificant effect on the development of the sovereign Sukuk Market. The findings advocate policymakers in Indonesia on the importance of strengthening financial stability and regulating the issuance of Sukuk in accordance with the associated financial risks to develop the Sukuk market properly.