在世界货币和金融体系变化的背景下俄罗斯向以本国货币结算的过渡

I. M. Vasilevskiy
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With the help of general methods of scientific cognition, graphical analysis the current state, dynamics and structure of the currency market of the Russian Federation in the conditions of sanctions are considered. In addition, the article assesses the background and prospects of the Russian Federation's transition to settlements in national currencies in view of the new trends in the development of the world monetary and financial system.Results. In 2022, after the economic sanctions against Russia were imposed, the state was forced to accelerate the process of transition to settlements in national currencies with major trading partners, and the domestic currency market underwent a significant transformation. In the conditions of digitalization of the financial sphere and the development of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) , the introduction of international settlements using the digital ruble seems to be a promising direction.Conclusions. 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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的在世界货币金融体系发生变化的背景下,确定俄罗斯联邦(RF)向国家货币结算过渡的背景和前景。分析俄罗斯联邦货币市场在货币结构和主要工具方面的现状;确定俄罗斯联邦货币市场转型的原因;描述在对外贸易中过渡到以本国货币结算的先决条件;在全球货币金融体系发展的最新趋势下,评估这种转型的前景及其对俄罗斯联邦货币市场的影响。在科学认知一般方法的帮助下,通过图表分析审议了制裁条件下俄罗斯联邦货币市场的现状、动态和结构。此外,文章还根据世界货币金融体系发展的新趋势,评估了俄罗斯联邦过渡到以本国货币结算的背景和前景。2022 年,在对俄罗斯实施经济制裁后,国家被迫加快了与主要贸易伙伴之间向本国货币结算过渡的进程,国内货币市场也经历了重大转变。在金融领域数字化和中央银行数字货币(CBDCs)发展的条件下,采用数字卢布进行国际结算似乎是一个很有前景的方向。对俄罗斯联邦实施制裁后(2022 年),国内外汇市场发生了重大变化,主要是世界货币(主要是美元)逐渐被卢布和人民币取代。总体而言,这一趋势反映了俄罗斯联邦对外贸易的状况。随着当地外汇市场交易量的减少和西方参与者的撤出,政府正在采取措施保护外汇市场的潜力。制裁下国际结算的一个可行方向是通过 CBDC 进行。然而,这一系统的实施需要数年时间,在此期间,俄罗斯联邦的金融系统必须在与西方金融市场隔离的情况下保持其潜力。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Russia's transition to settlements in national currencies in the context of changes in the world monetary and financial system
Aim. To determine the background and prospects of the Russian Federation's (RF) transition to settlements in national currencies in the context of changes in the world monetary and financial system.Objectives. To analyze the current state of the currency market of the Russian Federation in terms of currency structure and main instruments; to identify the reasons for the transformation of the currency market of the Russian Federation; to characterize the prerequisites for the transition to settlements in national currencies in foreign trade; to assess the prospects of such a transition and its impact on the currency market of the Russian Federation in the context of the latest trends in the development of the global monetary and financial system.Methods. With the help of general methods of scientific cognition, graphical analysis the current state, dynamics and structure of the currency market of the Russian Federation in the conditions of sanctions are considered. In addition, the article assesses the background and prospects of the Russian Federation's transition to settlements in national currencies in view of the new trends in the development of the world monetary and financial system.Results. In 2022, after the economic sanctions against Russia were imposed, the state was forced to accelerate the process of transition to settlements in national currencies with major trading partners, and the domestic currency market underwent a significant transformation. In the conditions of digitalization of the financial sphere and the development of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) , the introduction of international settlements using the digital ruble seems to be a promising direction.Conclusions. The period after the sanctions against the Russian Federation were imposed (2022) is marked by significant changes in the domestic foreign exchange market, primarily associated with the gradual displacement of world currencies (primarily the dollar) and their replacement by the ruble and renminbi. In general, this trend reflects the state of the RF foreign trade. With the reduction in the volume of the local foreign exchange market and the withdrawal of Western players, the government is taking measures aimed at preserving the potential of the foreign exchange market. A promising direction for international settlements under sanctions is through CBDC. However, the implementation of such a system will take years, during which the financial system of the Russian Federation will have to preserve its potential in isolation from Western financial markets.
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