制裁作为货币政策实施过程中的非货币通胀因素

V. S. Markina
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摘要

目的在货币政策框架内确定制裁政策对俄罗斯通货膨胀动态的影响程度。审查制裁政策作为通货膨胀非货币因素的当前趋势;评估制裁对俄罗斯通货膨胀率的影响程度,并在短期宏观经济计量模型的基础上考虑其他一些因素;证实在实施货币政策时考虑通货膨胀非货币因素的建议。为了分析作为通货膨胀非货币因素的制裁政策的现状,本研究采用了比较分析法和基于向量自回归模型的计量经济学模型。根据俄罗斯国家统计局和 Investing.com 提供的 2000 年至 2023 年通货膨胀率、卢布/美元汇率、RTS 指数、石油价格数据,在建立计量经济学模型分析制裁对通货膨胀动态影响的基础上,我们得出了以下结果。制裁作为一种非货币因素对通货膨胀动态有重大影响。反过来,石油价格在短期内并不影响通货膨胀动态。在形成和预测通货膨胀时应考虑制裁因素。石油价格对通货膨胀的影响不大,但在预测通货膨胀动态时必须考虑到石油市场的波动。俄罗斯联邦(RF)中央银行通过货币手段与非货币性通货膨胀的斗争并不总是只取得积极的结果。因此,控制通货膨胀的非货币因素应在宏观经济政策的综合工作中进行,而不仅仅是货币政策。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Sanctions as a non-monetary factor of inflation in the conduct of monetary policy
Aim. To determine the degree of influence of the sanctions policy on the inflation dynamics of Russia within the framework of the monetary policy.Objectives. To review the current trends of sanctions policy as a non-monetary factor of inflation; to assess the degree of impact of sanctions on the inflation rate in Russia, taking into account a number of other factors on the basis of macroeconometric modeling in the short term; to substantiate the recommendations for taking into account non-monetary factors of inflation for the implemented monetary policy.Methods. To analyze the current state of sanctions policy as a non-monetary factor of inflation, the study applies comparative analysis and econometric modeling based on the vector autoregression model.Results. On the basis of econometric modeling of the impact of sanctions on inflation dynamics, based on the data of Rosstat and Investing.com on the inflation rate, ruble/US dollar exchange rate, RTS index, oil prices from 2000 to 2023, we obtain the following results. Sanctions as a non-monetary factor has a significant impact on inflation dynamics. In turn, oil prices do not affect inflation dynamics in the short run.Conclusions. Sanctions should be taken into account in the formation and forecasting of inflation. Oil prices do not have a significant impact on inflation, but it is important to take into account the volatility of the oil market when forecasting inflation dynamics. The struggle of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (RF) with non-monetary inflation by monetary methods does not always lead only to a positive result. Therefore, the control of non-monetary factors of inflation should be carried out in the comprehensive work of macroeconomic policy, not only monetary policy.
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