人为气候变化导致哈萨克斯坦北部小麦减产

Paula Romanovska, Sabine Undorf, Bernhard Schauberger, A. Duisenbekova, C. Gornott
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摘要

哈萨克斯坦北部是一个主要的小麦出口国,为中亚和其他地区的粮食安全做出了贡献。然而,小麦产量起伏不定,低产年经常出现。目前还不清楚人类引起的气候变化在多大程度上造成了这种情况。本世纪最严重的低产年出现在 2010 年,对小麦进口国的粮食安全造成了严重影响。在此,我们介绍了一项气候影响归因研究,该研究量化了人类引起的气候变化对 21 世纪哈萨克斯坦北部小麦平均产量和相关经济收入的影响,以及对 2010 年这样的低产年出现的可能性的影响。这项研究使用了来自两个最新一代气候模型大集合的经过偏差调整的反事实和事实气候模型数据,作为国家以下产量统计模型的输入。我们认为气候数据和产量模型符合目的,因为首先,实际气候模拟代表了观测结果;其次,产量模型的样本外验证表现合理,平均 R2 为 0.54;第三,在所进行的敏感性测试中,结果是稳健的。人类引起的气候变化对小麦生产产生了严重影响,特别是通过日最低气温和极端高温的增加。这导致 2000-2019 年期间产量减少约 6.2% 至 8.2%(两个气候模型的不确定性范围),2010 年低产事件的可能性增加 1.5 至 4.7 倍(两个气候模型的第 10 至 90 百分位数不确定性范围)。在 2000-2019 年期间,人类引起的气候变化造成的经济损失估计在每年 9,600 万至 1.8 亿美元之间(两个气候模式的第 10 至第 90 百分位数的不确定性范围)。这些结果突出表明,有必要采取雄心勃勃的全球减缓努力和措施,使小麦生产适应不断升高的气温,确保地区和全球粮食安全。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Human-induced climate change has decreased wheat production in northern Kazakhstan
Northern Kazakhstan is a major wheat exporter, contributing to food security in Central Asia and beyond. However, wheat yields fluctuate and low-producing years occur frequently. It is currently unclear to what extent human-induced climate change contributes to this. The most severe low-producing year in this century was in 2010, which had severe consequences for the food security of wheat-importing countries. Here, we present a climate impact attribution study that quantifies the impact of human-induced climate change on the average wheat production and associated economic revenues in northern Kazakhstan in the 21st century and on the likelihood of a low-production year like 2010. The study uses bias-adjusted counterfactual and factual climate model data from two large ensembles of latest-generation climate models as input to a statistical subnational yield model. We consider the climate data and the yield model as fit for purpose as first, the factual climate simulations represent the observations, second, the out-of-sample validation of the yield model performs reasonably well with a mean R2 of 0.54, and third, the results are robust under the performed sensitivity tests. Human-induced climate change has had a critical impact on wheat production, specifically through increases in daily-minimum temperatures and extreme heat. This has resulted in a decrease in yields during 2000-2019 by approximately 6.2% to 8.2% (uncertainty range of two climate models) and an increased likelihood of the 2010 low-production event by 1.5 to 4.7 times (10th to 90th percentile uncertainty range covering both climate models). During 2000-2019, human-induced climate change caused economic losses estimated at between 96 and 180 million USD per year (10th to 90th percentile uncertainty range covering both climate models). These results highlight the necessity for ambitious global mitigation efforts and measures to adapt wheat production to increasing temperatures, ensuring regional and global food security.
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