从布雷顿森林体系到通胀目标制,小型开放经济体的汇率制度选择

IF 1.5 Q2 ECONOMICS
Nathan Sussman, Charles Wyplosz
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在经历了数个世纪的金属货币时代后,我们对法定货币的理解在很长一段时间内仍然是初级的,而且经常引起争议。接二连三的制度最终都失败了。布雷顿森林体系的终结标志着法币与黄金之间的联系被切断,汇率浮动成为可能。小型开放经济体采取了各种安排。在这些试验的启发下,人们对货币政策的理解有了实质性的进步,从而广泛采用了预期通货膨胀目标战略和类似的通货膨胀目标。因此,汇率的可变性有所下降。美元的主导地位得以保持甚至增强。然而,新的挑战又出现了。利率长期停留在有效边界,实际上中止了该战略的使用。然后,在大流行后通货膨胀率飙升期间,通货膨胀预测变得非常不精确。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Exchange Rate Regime Choices in Small Open Economies from Bretton Woods to Inflation Targeting

Exchange Rate Regime Choices in Small Open Economies from Bretton Woods to Inflation Targeting

After centuries of metallic monies, for a long time, our understanding of fiat money had remained rudimentary and often controversial. Successive regimes eventually failed. The end of the Bretton Woods system marked the moment when the link between fiat money and gold was severed and when the possibility of letting exchange rates float became possible. The small open economies adopted various arrangements. Informed by these experiments, the understanding of monetary policy substantially progressed, leading to the widespread adoption of the expected inflation-targeting strategy with similar inflation targets. As a result, exchange rate variability has declined. The US dollar dominance was maintained and even increased. Yet, new challenges have emerged. The long period of interest rates stuck at the effective bound effectively suspended the use of the strategy. Then, during the post-pandemic surge in inflation rates, inflation forecasts became highly imprecise.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.30
自引率
12.50%
发文量
23
期刊介绍: Comparative Economic Studies is a journal of the Association for Comparative Economic Studies (ACES). It aims to publish papers that address several objectives: that provide original political economy analysis from a comparative perspective, that are an accessible source for state-of-the-art comparative economics thinking, that encourage cross-fertilization of ideas, that debate directions for future research in comparative economics, and that can provide materials and insights that are relevant for teaching, public policy debate and the media. Comparative Economic Studies welcome both submissions that are explicitly comparative and case studies of single countries or regions. The journal is interested in papers that investigate how economic systems respond to economic transitions, crises and to structural change, brought about by globalization, demographics, institutions, technology, politics, and the environment. While maintaining its position as an important outlet for work on Central Europe and the Former Soviet Union, the scope of Comparative Economic Studies encompasses other areas as well (European Union, Asia, Latin America, and Africa).
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