降水变化和温度敏感性在决定受威胁的亚热带雨林特有植物 Triunia robusta(山龙眼科)种群生存能力方面的相对重要性

IF 1.6 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ECOLOGY
Austral Ecology Pub Date : 2024-06-03 DOI:10.1111/aec.13546
Yoko Shimizu, Arnon Accad, Alison Shapcott
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引用次数: 0

摘要

雨林中的濒危物种可能很容易受到气候变化的影响,因为它们的热耐受性可能很窄、种群规模小、分布受限且扩散有限。我们研究了潜在气候变化对澳大利亚昆士兰东南部特有的濒危雨林灌木 Triunia robusta(山茶科)种群生存能力的相对影响。研究人员建立了一个具有七个阶段等级的空间明确随机种群模型,并将该模型与物种分布模型(SDM)连接起来,以探索从 2010 年到 2100 年 90 年间的各种假定气候变化模拟:(1)种群动态不变;(2)栖息地分布的变化作为承载力的变化趋势;(3)栖息地分布、降水和温度机制的变化作为幼苗存活率和繁殖率的相对变化。研究结果表明,无论地理位置或气候压力因素如何,小种群都很容易在当地灭绝,而位于物种分布区南端的一些较大种群则表现出原地持续生存的能力。研究发现,Triunia robusta 对降水量减少和温度升高很敏感,这限制了该物种的繁殖活动和幼苗的建立,从而降低了整体丰度。将种群模型与可持续发展机制相结合,可以评估可能影响 T. robusta 的栖息地分布和种群动态的多种气候压力因素,并最终就气候变化对未来保护和管理规划的潜在影响提出建议。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

The relative importance of precipitation change and temperature sensitivity in determining the population viability of a threatened sub-tropical rainforest endemic plant Triunia robusta (Proteaceae)

The relative importance of precipitation change and temperature sensitivity in determining the population viability of a threatened sub-tropical rainforest endemic plant Triunia robusta (Proteaceae)

Threatened species in rainforests may be vulnerable to climate change, because of their potentially narrow thermal tolerances, small population sizes, restricted distributions and limited dispersal. We investigated the relative influence of potential climate change on the population viability of Triunia robusta (Proteaceae), an endangered rainforest shrub endemic to southeast Queensland, Australia. A spatially explicit, stochastic population model with seven stage classes was developed and linked with the species distribution model (SDM) to explore a variety of hypothetical climate change simulations over a 90-year period from 2010 to 2100: (1) constant population dynamics, (2) changes in habitat distributions as trend in carrying capacity and (3) changes in habitat distributions, precipitation and temperature regime as relative change in seedling survival and fecundity. The results revealed high vulnerability of small populations to local extinction regardless of geographical location or climatic stressors, while some larger populations located in the southern end of the species distribution range showed persistence in-situ. Triunia robusta was found to be sensitive to reduced precipitation and increased temperature, limiting the species reproductive activities and seedling establishment and reducing the overall abundance consequently. Integration of population models and SDM allowed for the evaluation of multiple climatic stressors that may affect habitat distributions and population dynamics of T. robusta and ultimately suggest potential implications for future conservation and management planning with respect to climate change.

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来源期刊
Austral Ecology
Austral Ecology 环境科学-生态学
CiteScore
2.90
自引率
6.70%
发文量
117
审稿时长
12-24 weeks
期刊介绍: Austral Ecology is the premier journal for basic and applied ecology in the Southern Hemisphere. As the official Journal of The Ecological Society of Australia (ESA), Austral Ecology addresses the commonality between ecosystems in Australia and many parts of southern Africa, South America, New Zealand and Oceania. For example many species in the unique biotas of these regions share common Gondwana ancestors. ESA''s aim is to publish innovative research to encourage the sharing of information and experiences that enrich the understanding of the ecology of the Southern Hemisphere. Austral Ecology involves an editorial board with representatives from Australia, South Africa, New Zealand, Brazil and Argentina. These representatives provide expert opinions, access to qualified reviewers and act as a focus for attracting a wide range of contributions from countries across the region. Austral Ecology publishes original papers describing experimental, observational or theoretical studies on terrestrial, marine or freshwater systems, which are considered without taxonomic bias. Special thematic issues are published regularly, including symposia on the ecology of estuaries and soft sediment habitats, freshwater systems and coral reef fish.
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