Vested Interest Theory as a Framework for Understanding Anthropogenic Climate Change Risk Perceptions.

Climate change due to anthropogenic activities is contributing to the systematic warming of Earth. A warming planet represents an existential threat to humanity, contributing to the increased frequency and magnitude of multiple natural hazards. The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) notes that time is running out to create meaningful change to avert climate-related consequences. This research posits Vested Interest Theory (VIT) as a potentially useful framework for assessing attitudes and risk perceptions associated with anthropogenic climate change (ACC). Vested Interest Theory mediates the attitude-behavior relationship where highly vested individuals are more likely to behave in attitudinally-consistent ways. Vestedness is conceptualized as five distinct and observable variables: salience, certainty, immediacy, self-efficacy, and response-efficacy. To test VIT's efficacy in this context, a survey was conducted with participants crowdsourced from Amazon's Mechanical Turk platform (N = 1053). Participants responded to items designed to measure their individual vestedness in ACC consequences, risk perceptions, and behavioral intentions. This initial investigation shows that VIT's constituent variables predict consequential amounts of observed variance in critical variables including risk perception, perceived event severity, and behavioral intentions related to ACC hazard mitigation. The results support the use of VIT as a framework for understanding attitude-behavior relationships associated with ACC mitigation. Based on these findings, we argue that VIT can also serve as a valuable message design framework to motivate ACC-related mitigation actions.