电子商务平台蔬菜价格预测的混合方法

Kar Yan Choong, S. Sudin, Rafikha Aliana A. Raof, Rhui Jaan Ong
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引用次数: 0

摘要

马来西亚农业部门的重要性常常被忽视,而该国农业领域的数字化进展明显不足。将价格预测模型整合到平台中,可以让包括农民在内的相关各方根据预测的未来价格做出明智的决策和作物选择计划。在这项研究中,作者提出了线性模型与非线性模型相结合的混合方法来建立蔬菜价格预测模型。混合 SARIMA-DWT-GANN 模型用于预测马来西亚的月度蔬菜价格。历史蔬菜价格数据收集自马来西亚 FAMA,并分为训练集和测试集进行建模。根据 MAE、MAPE 和 RMSE 等精度指标对模型的性能进行了评估。使用建议的混合模型得出的预测结果与使用单一 SARIMA 模型得出的结果进行了比较。总之,混合 SARIMA-DWT-GANN 模型优于单个模型,其 MAE、RMSE 更小,预测准确率至少达到 95%。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Hybrid approach for vegetable price forecasting in electronic commerce platform
The significance of the agriculture sector in Malaysia is often overlooked, and there is a notable deficiency in the advancement of digitalization within the country's agricultural domain. The integration of a price forecasting model in the platform enables the relevant parties, including farmers, to make informed decisions and plan their crop selection based on projected future prices. In this research, the authors proposed the hybrid approach with the combination of linear model and non-linear model in doing the vegetable price forecasting model. The hybrid SARIMA-DWT-GANN model is utilized to forecast the monthly vegetable prices in Malaysia. The historical vegetable price data is collected from the FAMA Malaysia and split into training/test set for modelling. The performance of the models is evaluated on the accuracy metrics including MAE, MAPE, and RMSE. The forecasted results using the proposed hybrid model are compared to that using the single SARIMA model. In conclusion, the hybrid SARIMA-DWT-GANN model is superior to the individual model, which obtained the smaller MAE, RMSE, and got the forecast accuracy of at least 95%. 
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