Projecting long-term clinical outcomes with larotrectinib compared with immune checkpoint inhibitors in metastatic nonsmall cell lung cancer and differentiated thyroid cancer.

Background: Larotrectinib is approved for patients with advanced NTRK gene fusion-positive solid tumors. Prior studies demonstrated promising results with larotrectinib compared with other systemic therapy. However, comparisons to checkpoint inhibitors, such as nivolumab or pembrolizumab, have not been done.

Objective: To estimate and compare expected life-years (LYs) and quality-adjusted LYs (QALYs) for patients with nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC) eligible for larotrectinib vs patients with unknown NTRK gene fusion status on nivolumab or pembrolizumab. We also assessed patients with metastatic differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC), as pembrolizumab may be considered in certain circumstances.

Methods: We developed partitioned survival models to project long-term comparative effectiveness of larotrectinib vs nivolumab or pembrolizumab. Larotrectinib survival data were derived from an updated July 2021 analysis of 21 adult patients (≥18 years of age) with metastatic NTRK gene fusion-positive NSCLC and 21 with DTC. Survival inputs for nivolumab and pembrolizumab were obtained from published articles. Progression-free and overall survival were estimated using survival distributions (Exponential, Weibull, Log-logistic, and Log-normal). Exponential fits were chosen based on goodness-of-fit and clinical plausibility.

Results: In NSCLC, larotrectinib resulted in gains of 5.87 and 5.91 LYs compared to nivolumab and pembrolizumab, respectively, which translated to gains of 3.53 and 3.56 QALYs. In DTC, larotrectinib resulted in a gain of 5.23 LYs and 4.24 QALYs compared to pembrolizumab.

Conclusions: In metastatic NSCLC and DTC, larotrectinib may produce substantial life expectancy and QALY gains compared to immune checkpoint inhibitors. Additional data with longer follow-up will further inform this comparison.