{"title":"人为气候变化对中国气象干旱的影响","authors":"Ran Dai, Jinlong Huang, Ziyan Chen, Jian Zhou, Peni Hausia Havea","doi":"10.3389/feart.2024.1369523","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Drought, being one of the most devastating natural disasters, has a far-reaching impact. In the context of global warming, it becomes crucial to quantitatively and scientifically assess the effects of anthropogenic climate change on meteorological drought in China. This assessment not only enhances our understanding of anthropogenic climate change but also aids in formulating more effective strategies for managing the risks associated with meteorological drought. This study employs the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) to compute drought events by utilizing both observational data and counterfactual climate data (i.e., detrended observations). Subsequently, it analyzes the impact of anthropogenic climate change on the characteristics of drought, including frequency, intensity, duration, and affected area, in China as well as nine major river basins from 1960 to 2019. The outcomes of the analysis reveal that based on observational data, there is a discernible upward trend in the frequency, intensity, duration, and affected area of meteorological droughts in China. Notably, the regions experiencing an increase in frequency, intensity, and duration are primarily situated in the northeastern part of the Northwestern Rivers basin, the central and western parts of the Yellow River basin, the central and northern parts of the Yangtze River basin, the western part of the Southeastern River basins, and the eastern part of the Pearl River basin. Conversely, when considering a counterfactual climate scenario, the frequency and intensity of meteorological droughts in China demonstrate an upward trend, while the duration and affected area exhibit a downward trend. The impact of anthropogenic climate change on China has been evident in the increased frequency, intensity, duration, and affected area of droughts. Specifically, regions located in the northeastern parts of Northwest River basins, the southern part of the Songliao River basin, the northern part of the Haihe River basin, the central-northern part of the Yangtze River basin, the eastern part of the Pearl River basin, and the western part of the Southwest River basins have experienced amplified levels of drought. Anthropogenic climate change is highlighted as the primary factor influencing the observed drought characteristics changes in China, with contribution rates of 84.67%, 75.25%, 190.32%, and 133.99% for changes in the increased drought frequency, intensity, duration, and affected area, respectively. These changes have significant implications for water resource management and agricultural practices in the affected regions.","PeriodicalId":12359,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Earth Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Impacts of anthropogenic climate change on meteorological drought in China\",\"authors\":\"Ran Dai, Jinlong Huang, Ziyan Chen, Jian Zhou, Peni Hausia Havea\",\"doi\":\"10.3389/feart.2024.1369523\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Drought, being one of the most devastating natural disasters, has a far-reaching impact. In the context of global warming, it becomes crucial to quantitatively and scientifically assess the effects of anthropogenic climate change on meteorological drought in China. This assessment not only enhances our understanding of anthropogenic climate change but also aids in formulating more effective strategies for managing the risks associated with meteorological drought. This study employs the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) to compute drought events by utilizing both observational data and counterfactual climate data (i.e., detrended observations). Subsequently, it analyzes the impact of anthropogenic climate change on the characteristics of drought, including frequency, intensity, duration, and affected area, in China as well as nine major river basins from 1960 to 2019. The outcomes of the analysis reveal that based on observational data, there is a discernible upward trend in the frequency, intensity, duration, and affected area of meteorological droughts in China. Notably, the regions experiencing an increase in frequency, intensity, and duration are primarily situated in the northeastern part of the Northwestern Rivers basin, the central and western parts of the Yellow River basin, the central and northern parts of the Yangtze River basin, the western part of the Southeastern River basins, and the eastern part of the Pearl River basin. Conversely, when considering a counterfactual climate scenario, the frequency and intensity of meteorological droughts in China demonstrate an upward trend, while the duration and affected area exhibit a downward trend. The impact of anthropogenic climate change on China has been evident in the increased frequency, intensity, duration, and affected area of droughts. Specifically, regions located in the northeastern parts of Northwest River basins, the southern part of the Songliao River basin, the northern part of the Haihe River basin, the central-northern part of the Yangtze River basin, the eastern part of the Pearl River basin, and the western part of the Southwest River basins have experienced amplified levels of drought. Anthropogenic climate change is highlighted as the primary factor influencing the observed drought characteristics changes in China, with contribution rates of 84.67%, 75.25%, 190.32%, and 133.99% for changes in the increased drought frequency, intensity, duration, and affected area, respectively. These changes have significant implications for water resource management and agricultural practices in the affected regions.\",\"PeriodicalId\":12359,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Frontiers in Earth Science\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-05-31\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Frontiers in Earth Science\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2024.1369523\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Frontiers in Earth Science","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2024.1369523","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Impacts of anthropogenic climate change on meteorological drought in China
Drought, being one of the most devastating natural disasters, has a far-reaching impact. In the context of global warming, it becomes crucial to quantitatively and scientifically assess the effects of anthropogenic climate change on meteorological drought in China. This assessment not only enhances our understanding of anthropogenic climate change but also aids in formulating more effective strategies for managing the risks associated with meteorological drought. This study employs the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) to compute drought events by utilizing both observational data and counterfactual climate data (i.e., detrended observations). Subsequently, it analyzes the impact of anthropogenic climate change on the characteristics of drought, including frequency, intensity, duration, and affected area, in China as well as nine major river basins from 1960 to 2019. The outcomes of the analysis reveal that based on observational data, there is a discernible upward trend in the frequency, intensity, duration, and affected area of meteorological droughts in China. Notably, the regions experiencing an increase in frequency, intensity, and duration are primarily situated in the northeastern part of the Northwestern Rivers basin, the central and western parts of the Yellow River basin, the central and northern parts of the Yangtze River basin, the western part of the Southeastern River basins, and the eastern part of the Pearl River basin. Conversely, when considering a counterfactual climate scenario, the frequency and intensity of meteorological droughts in China demonstrate an upward trend, while the duration and affected area exhibit a downward trend. The impact of anthropogenic climate change on China has been evident in the increased frequency, intensity, duration, and affected area of droughts. Specifically, regions located in the northeastern parts of Northwest River basins, the southern part of the Songliao River basin, the northern part of the Haihe River basin, the central-northern part of the Yangtze River basin, the eastern part of the Pearl River basin, and the western part of the Southwest River basins have experienced amplified levels of drought. Anthropogenic climate change is highlighted as the primary factor influencing the observed drought characteristics changes in China, with contribution rates of 84.67%, 75.25%, 190.32%, and 133.99% for changes in the increased drought frequency, intensity, duration, and affected area, respectively. These changes have significant implications for water resource management and agricultural practices in the affected regions.
期刊介绍:
Frontiers in Earth Science is an open-access journal that aims to bring together and publish on a single platform the best research dedicated to our planet.
This platform hosts the rapidly growing and continuously expanding domains in Earth Science, involving the lithosphere (including the geosciences spectrum), the hydrosphere (including marine geosciences and hydrology, complementing the existing Frontiers journal on Marine Science) and the atmosphere (including meteorology and climatology). As such, Frontiers in Earth Science focuses on the countless processes operating within and among the major spheres constituting our planet. In turn, the understanding of these processes provides the theoretical background to better use the available resources and to face the major environmental challenges (including earthquakes, tsunamis, eruptions, floods, landslides, climate changes, extreme meteorological events): this is where interdependent processes meet, requiring a holistic view to better live on and with our planet.
The journal welcomes outstanding contributions in any domain of Earth Science.
The open-access model developed by Frontiers offers a fast, efficient, timely and dynamic alternative to traditional publication formats. The journal has 20 specialty sections at the first tier, each acting as an independent journal with a full editorial board. The traditional peer-review process is adapted to guarantee fairness and efficiency using a thorough paperless process, with real-time author-reviewer-editor interactions, collaborative reviewer mandates to maximize quality, and reviewer disclosure after article acceptance. While maintaining a rigorous peer-review, this system allows for a process whereby accepted articles are published online on average 90 days after submission.
General Commentary articles as well as Book Reviews in Frontiers in Earth Science are only accepted upon invitation.