{"title":"基于LUCC和模拟的环杭州湾大湾区生境质量时空变化","authors":"Yu He, Wanzheng Ai","doi":"10.1071/mf23242","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<strong> Context</strong><p>Habitat quality (HQ) is vital for achieving sustainable regional development. Understanding the spatial patterns and temporal evolution of HQ in the context of land use–cover change (LUCC) is crucial for promoting ecological civilisation and high-quality growth, especially for regions with rapid economic development.</p><strong> Aims</strong><p>In order to analyse the impact of LUCC on habitat quality in the coastal areas with frequent human activities.</p><strong> Methods</strong><p>This study focused on the Greater Bay Area around Hangzhou Bay and analysed the HQ on the basis of LUCC data during 2010–2020 by using the <i>InVEST</i> model and spatial autocorrelation analysis. Additionally, land-use data for multiple scenarios in 2030 were predicted using the <i>PLUS</i> model, and the variations in land use and HQ in the study region during 2020–2030 were assessed.</p><strong> Key results</strong><p>During 2010–2020, the construction land in the region expanded by 1932.79 km<sup>2</sup>, primarily at the expense of cropland and water areas. The mean HQ values were 0.6287, 0.6181 and 0.6037 for 2010, 2015 and 2020 respectively, indicating a continuous decline. Spatially, HQ exhibited strong clustering during this period. However, there was a clear trend of fragmentation and reduction in ‘high–high’ cluster areas along the coast, mostly owing to the transformation of water areas and wetlands into construction land and cropland. In the projected scenarios (natural development, ND; economic development, ED; crop protection, CP; and ecological protection, EP) for 2030, the mean HQ values are estimated to be 0.5881, 0.5837, 0.5915 and 0.5965 respectively. Compared with 2020, there will be a certain decrease in HQ, with the EP scenario showing the lowest decrease of 0.0052.</p><strong> Conclusions</strong><p>The HQ changes were closely linked to LUCC, the construction-land expansion was the main cause of HQ destruction in the Greater Bay Area around Hangzhou Bay. To alleviate the trend of declining HQ, it is essential to select appropriate development scenarios for each city in the region and coordinate the development of the cities.</p><strong> Implications</strong><p>These findings provide valuable insights for promoting sustainable economic growth in the Greater Bay Area around Hangzhou Bay.</p>","PeriodicalId":18209,"journal":{"name":"Marine and Freshwater Research","volume":"37 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Spatio-temporal variations of habitat quality in the Greater Bay Area around Hangzhou Bay, based on LUCC and simulation\",\"authors\":\"Yu He, Wanzheng Ai\",\"doi\":\"10.1071/mf23242\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<strong> Context</strong><p>Habitat quality (HQ) is vital for achieving sustainable regional development. Understanding the spatial patterns and temporal evolution of HQ in the context of land use–cover change (LUCC) is crucial for promoting ecological civilisation and high-quality growth, especially for regions with rapid economic development.</p><strong> Aims</strong><p>In order to analyse the impact of LUCC on habitat quality in the coastal areas with frequent human activities.</p><strong> Methods</strong><p>This study focused on the Greater Bay Area around Hangzhou Bay and analysed the HQ on the basis of LUCC data during 2010–2020 by using the <i>InVEST</i> model and spatial autocorrelation analysis. Additionally, land-use data for multiple scenarios in 2030 were predicted using the <i>PLUS</i> model, and the variations in land use and HQ in the study region during 2020–2030 were assessed.</p><strong> Key results</strong><p>During 2010–2020, the construction land in the region expanded by 1932.79 km<sup>2</sup>, primarily at the expense of cropland and water areas. The mean HQ values were 0.6287, 0.6181 and 0.6037 for 2010, 2015 and 2020 respectively, indicating a continuous decline. Spatially, HQ exhibited strong clustering during this period. However, there was a clear trend of fragmentation and reduction in ‘high–high’ cluster areas along the coast, mostly owing to the transformation of water areas and wetlands into construction land and cropland. In the projected scenarios (natural development, ND; economic development, ED; crop protection, CP; and ecological protection, EP) for 2030, the mean HQ values are estimated to be 0.5881, 0.5837, 0.5915 and 0.5965 respectively. Compared with 2020, there will be a certain decrease in HQ, with the EP scenario showing the lowest decrease of 0.0052.</p><strong> Conclusions</strong><p>The HQ changes were closely linked to LUCC, the construction-land expansion was the main cause of HQ destruction in the Greater Bay Area around Hangzhou Bay. To alleviate the trend of declining HQ, it is essential to select appropriate development scenarios for each city in the region and coordinate the development of the cities.</p><strong> Implications</strong><p>These findings provide valuable insights for promoting sustainable economic growth in the Greater Bay Area around Hangzhou Bay.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":18209,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Marine and Freshwater Research\",\"volume\":\"37 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-05-28\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Marine and Freshwater Research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1071/mf23242\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"FISHERIES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Marine and Freshwater Research","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1071/mf23242","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"FISHERIES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Spatio-temporal variations of habitat quality in the Greater Bay Area around Hangzhou Bay, based on LUCC and simulation
Context
Habitat quality (HQ) is vital for achieving sustainable regional development. Understanding the spatial patterns and temporal evolution of HQ in the context of land use–cover change (LUCC) is crucial for promoting ecological civilisation and high-quality growth, especially for regions with rapid economic development.
Aims
In order to analyse the impact of LUCC on habitat quality in the coastal areas with frequent human activities.
Methods
This study focused on the Greater Bay Area around Hangzhou Bay and analysed the HQ on the basis of LUCC data during 2010–2020 by using the InVEST model and spatial autocorrelation analysis. Additionally, land-use data for multiple scenarios in 2030 were predicted using the PLUS model, and the variations in land use and HQ in the study region during 2020–2030 were assessed.
Key results
During 2010–2020, the construction land in the region expanded by 1932.79 km2, primarily at the expense of cropland and water areas. The mean HQ values were 0.6287, 0.6181 and 0.6037 for 2010, 2015 and 2020 respectively, indicating a continuous decline. Spatially, HQ exhibited strong clustering during this period. However, there was a clear trend of fragmentation and reduction in ‘high–high’ cluster areas along the coast, mostly owing to the transformation of water areas and wetlands into construction land and cropland. In the projected scenarios (natural development, ND; economic development, ED; crop protection, CP; and ecological protection, EP) for 2030, the mean HQ values are estimated to be 0.5881, 0.5837, 0.5915 and 0.5965 respectively. Compared with 2020, there will be a certain decrease in HQ, with the EP scenario showing the lowest decrease of 0.0052.
Conclusions
The HQ changes were closely linked to LUCC, the construction-land expansion was the main cause of HQ destruction in the Greater Bay Area around Hangzhou Bay. To alleviate the trend of declining HQ, it is essential to select appropriate development scenarios for each city in the region and coordinate the development of the cities.
Implications
These findings provide valuable insights for promoting sustainable economic growth in the Greater Bay Area around Hangzhou Bay.
期刊介绍：
Marine and Freshwater Research is an international and interdisciplinary journal publishing contributions on all aquatic environments. The journal’s content addresses broad conceptual questions and investigations about the ecology and management of aquatic environments. Environments range from groundwaters, wetlands and streams to estuaries, rocky shores, reefs and the open ocean. Subject areas include, but are not limited to: aquatic ecosystem processes, such as nutrient cycling; biology; ecology; biogeochemistry; biogeography and phylogeography; hydrology; limnology; oceanography; toxicology; conservation and management; and ecosystem services. Contributions that are interdisciplinary and of wide interest and consider the social-ecological and institutional issues associated with managing marine and freshwater ecosystems are welcomed.
Marine and Freshwater Research is a valuable resource for researchers in industry and academia, resource managers, environmental consultants, students and amateurs who are interested in any aspect of the aquatic sciences.
Marine and Freshwater Research is published with the endorsement of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) and the Australian Academy of Science.
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