Quantifying the natural growth rate of hepatocellular carcinoma: A real-world retrospective study in southwestern China.

Background: In recent years, approximately half of the newly diagnosed cases and mortalities attributed to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have been reported in China. Despite the high incidence of HCC, there remains a paucity of data regarding the natural growth pattern and the determination of optimal surveillance intervals specific to the Chinese population.

Aim: To quantify the natural tumor growth pattern of HCC in regional China.

Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed on patients from a single institution in Southwest China who had undergone two or more serial dynamic computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging scans between 2014 and 2020, without having received any anti-cancer therapy. Tumor growth was assessed using tumor volume doubling time (TVDT) and tumor growth rate (TGR), with volumes measured manually by experienced radiologists. Simple univariate linear regression and descriptive analysis were applied to explore associations between growth rates and clinical factors.

Results: This study identifies the median TVDT for HCC as 163.4 d, interquartile range (IQR) 72.1 to 302.3 d, with a daily TGR of 0.42% (IQR 0.206%-0.97%). HCC growth patterns reveal that about one-third of tumors grow indolently with TVDT exceeding 270 d, another one-third of tumors exhibit rapid growth with TVDT under 90 d, and the remaining tumors show intermediate growth rates, with TVDT ranging between 3 to 9 months.

Conclusion: The identified TGRs support biannual surveillance and follow-up for HCC patients in certain regions of China. Given the observed heterogeneity in HCC growth, further investigation is warranted.