Urban influence on convective precipitation in the Paris region: Hectometric ensemble simulations in a case study

The purpose of this study is to investigate the influence of the urban environment of the Paris region on an isolated convective cell that formed downwind of the city on May 7, 2022, using the Meso‐NH research atmospheric model at a horizontal scale of 300 m. To account for all sources of forecast uncertainty, the initial and lateral boundary conditions of the simulations are provided by an ensemble prediction system. A multi‐layer urban scheme is used to represent the influence of buildings on the airflow accurately. Two sets of ensemble simulations are performed: the first set (URB) uses a fine‐scale surface description of the city, while the second set (NOURB) replaces urban surfaces with vegetation. This sensitivity test shows that, despite the high variability of simulated precipitation within the ensemble, the city of Paris plays a statistically significant role in the initiation of convection in this case. Convective cells are initiated over the city for several members of the URB ensemble, while almost no precipitation is simulated for the same members of the NOURB ensemble. The mean 6‐h rainfall accumulation of the URB ensemble is increased by 70% over Paris (compared with the NOURB ensemble) and no statistically significant trend is found around the city. The analysis reveals that the capital experiences a higher sensible heat flux due to drier and warmer air, resulting in enhanced vertical velocities and an increase in boundary‐layer height in the URB ensemble. Additionally, the total water content and cloud fraction over Paris are intensified, leading to more precipitation. These findings suggest that urbanisation has a notable impact on convection and precipitation processes in this case.