{"title":"数据生成过程和时间序列资产定价","authors":"Shuxin Guo, Qiang Liu","doi":"arxiv-2405.10920","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"We study the data-generating processes for factors expressed in return\ndifferences, which the literature on time-series asset pricing seems to have\noverlooked. For the factors' data-generating processes or long-short zero-cost\nportfolios, a meaningful definition of returns is impossible; further, the\ncompounded market factor (MF) significantly underestimates the return\ndifference between the market and the risk-free rate compounded separately.\nSurprisingly, if MF were treated coercively as periodic-rebalancing long-short\n(i.e., the same as size and value), Fama-French three-factor (FF3) would be\neconomically unattractive for lacking compounding and irrelevant for suffering\nfrom the small \"size of an effect.\" Otherwise, FF3 might be misspecified if MF\nwere buy-and-hold long-short. Finally, we show that OLS with net returns for\nsingle-index models leads to inflated alphas, exaggerated t-values, and\noverestimated Sharpe ratios (SR); worse, net returns may lead to pathological\nalphas and SRs. We propose defining factors (and SRs) with non-difference\ncompound returns.","PeriodicalId":501128,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - QuantFin - Risk Management","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Data-generating process and time-series asset pricing\",\"authors\":\"Shuxin Guo, Qiang Liu\",\"doi\":\"arxiv-2405.10920\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"We study the data-generating processes for factors expressed in return\\ndifferences, which the literature on time-series asset pricing seems to have\\noverlooked. For the factors' data-generating processes or long-short zero-cost\\nportfolios, a meaningful definition of returns is impossible; further, the\\ncompounded market factor (MF) significantly underestimates the return\\ndifference between the market and the risk-free rate compounded separately.\\nSurprisingly, if MF were treated coercively as periodic-rebalancing long-short\\n(i.e., the same as size and value), Fama-French three-factor (FF3) would be\\neconomically unattractive for lacking compounding and irrelevant for suffering\\nfrom the small \\\"size of an effect.\\\" Otherwise, FF3 might be misspecified if MF\\nwere buy-and-hold long-short. Finally, we show that OLS with net returns for\\nsingle-index models leads to inflated alphas, exaggerated t-values, and\\noverestimated Sharpe ratios (SR); worse, net returns may lead to pathological\\nalphas and SRs. We propose defining factors (and SRs) with non-difference\\ncompound returns.\",\"PeriodicalId\":501128,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"arXiv - QuantFin - Risk Management\",\"volume\":\"20 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-05-17\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"arXiv - QuantFin - Risk Management\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/arxiv-2405.10920\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"arXiv - QuantFin - Risk Management","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2405.10920","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Data-generating process and time-series asset pricing
We study the data-generating processes for factors expressed in return
differences, which the literature on time-series asset pricing seems to have
overlooked. For the factors' data-generating processes or long-short zero-cost
portfolios, a meaningful definition of returns is impossible; further, the
compounded market factor (MF) significantly underestimates the return
difference between the market and the risk-free rate compounded separately.
Surprisingly, if MF were treated coercively as periodic-rebalancing long-short
(i.e., the same as size and value), Fama-French three-factor (FF3) would be
economically unattractive for lacking compounding and irrelevant for suffering
from the small "size of an effect." Otherwise, FF3 might be misspecified if MF
were buy-and-hold long-short. Finally, we show that OLS with net returns for
single-index models leads to inflated alphas, exaggerated t-values, and
overestimated Sharpe ratios (SR); worse, net returns may lead to pathological
alphas and SRs. We propose defining factors (and SRs) with non-difference
compound returns.