地缘政治风险与土耳其旅游业

Asiye Tütüncü
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文旨在说明土耳其地缘政治风险对土耳其国际游客数量的影响。在对 2019 年土耳其经济进行分析时,我们发现旅游业占国民收入的 11%。因此,国际游客数量的变化会对国民经济产生重大影响。安全问题是影响游客数量的一个重要变量。因此,在模型中加入了国际游客抵达数量作为因变量,地缘政治风险作为自变量,国内生产总值(GDP)和经济自由度指数作为控制变量,通货膨胀作为外部变量。使用了残差增强最小二乘法-自回归分布滞后(RALS-ADL)协整检验法和动态普通最小二乘法(DOLS)系数估计法。结果 RALS-ADL 协整检验结果表明,在 1%的显著性水平上,变量之间存在协整关系。此外,DOLS 系数估计结果表明,经济自由度和 GDP 的增加会增加国际游客的数量,而地缘政治风险指数和通货膨胀的增加则会减少国际游客的数量。可以说,游客在做出旅游决定时会考虑东道国的安全和经济稳定性。在对文献进行研究时发现,针对土耳其的研究通常是在短时间内确定变量之间的关系。然而,为确保可持续增长和信心环境,应确定变量之间的长期关系,以便决策者做出更具影响力的决策。因此,本研究的目的是在考虑长期影响的基础上对文献做出贡献。此外,与其他研究不同的是,本研究使用 RALS-ADL 协整检验法填补了文献空白,该检验法可得出稳健的估计值。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Geopolitical risk and tourism in Turkey
PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to show the effect of Turkey's geopolitical risk on the number of international tourist arrivals to the country. When Turkish economy in 2019 is analyzed, it is seen that the share of tourism in national income is 11%. For this reason, national economy is significantly affected by changing of the number of international tourist arrivals. Security problems are an important variable affecting tourist arrivals.Design/methodology/approachThe paper focused on secondary data for the period 2000–2019 for macroeconomic variables. Accordingly, the number of international tourist arrivals was added as a dependent variable, geopolitical risk as an independent variable, gross domestic product (GDP) and economic freedom index as control variables and inflations as an external variable to the model. The residual augmented least squares–the autoregressive distributive lag (RALS-ADL) cointegration test and the dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) coefficient estimator were used. It allows for more robust results to be obtained when the residues do not have a normal distribution.FindingsThe RALS-ADL cointegration test result shows that there is a cointegration relationship between variables at a 1% significance level. Moreover, the DOLS coefficient estimator results indicate that an increase in economic freedom and GDP increase the number of international tourists, whereas an increase in the Geopolitical Risk Index and inflation decreases the number of international tourism arrival. It can be said that tourists consider the security and economic stability of the host country when making tourism decisions.Originality/valueTurkey is one of the most risky developing countries, as well as one of the most popular travel destinations. When the literature is examined, it has been found that studies for Turkey usually determine the relationship between the variables for a short period of time. However, to ensure sustainable growth and environment of confidence, the long-run relationship between variables should be determined so that policymakers can make more impactful decisions. Therefore, the aim of this study is to make a literature contribution, taking into account the long-term effects. In addition, unlike other studies, this study fills the gap in literature using the RALS-ADL cointegration test, which produces robust estimators.
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