后 COVID-19:是时候改变我们的生活方式,创造更美好的未来了

Roch Listz Maurice
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引用次数: 0

摘要

背景与目标:从公元 1 年到 1855 年第三次鼠疫之前,平均每 348 年就会发生一次大流行病。从那时起,平均每 33 年就会发生一次大流行,目前正在发生 2019 年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)。尽管当前的技术已经极大地改善了人类的生活方式,但到 2023 年底全球将有超过 700 000 000 例病例和 6 950 000 例死亡的 COVID-19 提醒我们仍有许多工作要做。本报告回顾了 COVID-19 从 2020 年 3 月到 2021 年 8 月的 18 个月,旨在强调有助于减轻未来流行病影响的潜在解决方案。材料与方法:COVID-19 数据(包括病例和死亡报告)每天从 Worldometer 平台提取,以建立一个数据库,用于宏观分析病毒在全球的传播情况。为了更好地了解 SARS-CoV-2 病毒在城市/直辖市的空间传播情况,将人口统计数据纳入了 COVID-19 数据库。在不失一般性的前提下,只分析了 COVID-19 病例总数排名前 30 位(200 个国家及以上)国家的数据。使用 Excel 软件(Microsoft® Excel® 2013 (15.0.5579.1001))进行统计(回归、t 检验(p < 0.05)、相关性、均值 ± std 等)。此外,还使用 Matlab 软件(许可证号:227725)进行了光谱分析,以更好地了解 COVID-19 的时间分布。研究结果这项研究表明,COVID-19 主要影响 20 国集团国家,而人口密度高的城市是病毒传播的强大激活因素。此外,频谱分析表明,COVID-19 病毒传播的最初几个月最为显著,SARS-CoV-2 病毒的传播范围迅速扩大。另一方面,随后的 6 个月显示出一定程度的稳定性,这主要是由于采取了多种预防措施,如隔离、关闭非必要服务、戴口罩、保持 2 米距离等。结论:鉴于人口稠密的城市和市政区域在很大程度上有利于 SARS-CoV-2 病毒的传播,我们认为,这种人口环境正在成为发达国家必须以适当和紧迫的方式加以解决的社会问题。COVID-19 使我们认识到,现在是采取预防和治疗行动的时候了。现象学证据表明,下一次大流行可能会在不到 50 年的时间内发生,也许是时候启动旨在缓解人口稠密地区拥挤状况的新社会项目了。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Post-COVID-19: Time to Change Our Way of Life for a Better Future
Background and Objectives: From the year 1 anno Domini until 1855, with the third plague, major pandemics occurred on average every 348 years. Since then, they have occurred on average every 33 years, with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) now underway. Even though current technologies have greatly improved the way of life of human beings, COVID-19, with more than 700,000,000 cases and 6,950,000 deaths worldwide by the end of 2023, reminds us that much remains to be done. This report looks back at 18 months of COVID-19, from March 2020 to August 2021, with the aim of highlighting potential solutions that could help mitigate the impact of future pandemics. Materials and Methods: COVID-19 data, including case and death reports, were extracted daily from the Worldometer platform to build a database for the macroscopic analysis of the spread of the virus around the world. Demographic data were integrated into the COVID-19 database for a better understanding of the spatial spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in cities/municipalities. Without loss of generality, only data from the top 30 (out of 200 and above) countries ranked by total number of COVID-19 cases were analyzed. Statistics (regression, t-test (p < 0.05), correlation, mean ± std, etc.) were carried out with Excel software (Microsoft® Excel® 2013 (15.0.5579.1001)). Spectral analysis, using Matlab software (license number: 227725), was also used to try to better understand the temporal spread of COVID-19. Results: This study showed that COVID-19 mainly affects G20 countries and that cities/municipalities with high population density are a powerful activator of the spread of the virus. In addition, spectral analysis highlighted that the very first months of the spread of COVID-19 were the most notable, with a strong expansion of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. On the other hand, the following six months showed a certain level of stability, mainly due to multiple preventive measures such as confinement, the closure of non-essential services, the wearing of masks, distancing of 2 m, etc. Conclusion: Given that densely populated cities and municipal areas have largely favored the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, it is believed that such a demographic context is becoming a societal problem that developed countries must address in a manner that is adequate and urgent. COVID-19 has made us understand that it is time to act both preventatively and curatively. With phenomenological evidence suggesting that the next pandemic could occur in less than 50 years, it may be time to launch new societal projects aimed at relieving congestion in densely populated regions.
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