Adapting to the new normal: Understanding public transport use and willingness-to-pay for social distancing during a pandemic context

The COVID-19 pandemic has been a worldwide disruptive event that impacted, to a greater or lesser extent, all countries and economic activities. In the transport sector, stakeholders are still dealing with and learning from its consequences, as many users have changed their preferences towards private and less sustainable modes. In this paper, a mixed logit modelling approach was applied to a vast database from a stated preference survey conducted in Germany to assess the influence of COVID-19 on mobility preferences in three different stages of the pandemic period: lockdown (high-risk of spread, May 2020), post-lockdown (medium risk of spread, June 2020), and a period where the number of infected cases was lower (small risk of spread, October 2020). Several variables were included in the analysis, such as sociodemographic characteristics, mobility habits and preferences regarding future mobility solutions. Three models were developed, one for each pandemic stage. A comprehensive and reflective analysis of the models’ results, aligned with other studies’ findings, shows that the utility of public transport (PuT) and bicycles, based on individuals’ sociodemographic characteristics and choice attributes, compared to cars was affected by the pandemic state. Regarding the influence of crowding inside PuT during the different periods, it was concluded that users are more willing to pay an extra for their monthly passes to have available seats in PuT in the latter stage of the pandemic. The availability of dedicated bike lanes and a shower at the destination were considered attractive factors for cycling during the lockdown phase. Regarding the private car use, the cost of parking is the only attribute that demonstrates a causal effect on the preference for using this mode. This attribute holds a greater relevance during the post-lockdown and “new normal” periods. The results of this study can be helpful to guide policymakers on the definition of actions to counteract the increasing preference for private transport in the future and during disruptions.